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By comparing the ratio of the Serb mean of Indicted versus enemy civilian casualties to the other group (Bosnians, Albanians, Tutsis, Germans and Croats) we see that we have 5,13 more Serbs convicted per enemy civilian casualty than the other groups.

No you don't. To find the ratio of indicted Serbs to other people's civvies, you need to do a weighted average, but you're doing a vanilla average.

When you do a weighted average, you get 2.16 indicted Serb for every 1000 enemy civilians, and 2.16 indicted Croat or Bosniac for every Serb civilian. And you get 1.02 convicted Serb for every 1000 enemy civilians, while you get 0.89 Bosniac and Croat convictions for every 1000 Serb civilians.

Also do note that the ratio of convictions will likely change as time progresses, because there is a number of indictees whose trials are not yet finished (that's a story in and of itself, but let's save that for another day).

The figures for Rwanda and Nürnberg are of somewhat dubious value to this discussion: The way you are using it assumes a linear relationship between the number of civilian deaths and the number of war criminals - that's a pretty reasonable assumption when we're talking about wars in the same ballpark (in this case between a couple of thousand civilian deaths and a couple of tens of thousands). But it may or may not be reasonable to extend it to wars involving hundreds or millions of civilian casualties.

(And of course, Re: Nürnberg, one should not forget that the Russians shot a couple of thousand Nazis in the DDR for war crimes and other stuff...)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 15th, 2009 at 05:57:29 PM EST

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