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I haven't seen anyone mention this yet, but events in Eastern Europe and on Wall Street seem to be converging.

The cluster** that was the Hungarian (and other countries) mortgage markets have laid a little bomb.

Because so many of these mortgages were denominated in currencies other than that the forint, the collapse of the currency relative to the euro, etc.... laid the conditions for a large number of mortgage defaults, as the decline of the forint against the currencies mortgages were denominated in has lead to a massive increase in the monthly payment in forint terms.

In turn, this cluster** in the mortgage markets is pulling down the entire economy, as ever greater amounts of cash leave the country to settle the debt.  Meaning that now problems with Hungarian homebuyers being able to pay of loans made in Euros by Austrian banks infects the foreign exchange market.

And as we saw with the collapse of the mortgage markets, the collapse of the underlying asset brought down a whole series of derivatives attached to it.  There's a similar situation with CDS on to control currency fluctuations.  If we see systematic shifts in the value of currencies, so that the holders of currency swap derivatives have to pay up.....

Then we are going to see a round II to this financial crisis that dwarfs the damage done by the collapse of home prices in the US, and the subprime mortgage mess.......

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Mar 2nd, 2009 at 12:45:02 PM EST
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