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EurActiv: No clear majority predicted in new Parliament
Two months ahead of the European elections, leading researchers are predicting that the next European Parliament will strike an equilibrium between centre-right and centre-left, but the growing influence of Central and Eastern European MEPs will shift the power balance within the political groups.

"We are predicting overall stability for the next Parliament," said Simon Hix, a professor at the London School of Economics, who together with Trinity College Professor Michael Marsh devised a methodology which predicted the outcome of the last European elections fairly accurately in 2004.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 03:34:51 PM EST
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European Voice: Parliament predicted to lean to the left after elections
The next European Parliament will lean slightly more to the left, but the centre-right EPP-ED will remain the largest group, political scientists predicted this morning (7 April).

Despite the difficulties faced by Socialist parties in France, Germany, Italy and the UK, the Socialist group overall is predicted to win 209 seats, an increase in its share from 27% to 28%. The Left group is also slated to do better and increase its share of the vote from 5% to 6.5%. The EPP-ED will see a slight dip in its share of seats, from 37% to 34%, but is predicted to win 249 seats, so maintaining its status as the biggest group in the Parliament. The EPP-ED's top ranking would survive the defection of the UK's Conservative party and the Czech Republic's Civil Democratic party (ODS) to form a new group.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 03:38:45 PM EST
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Compare to the coverage in the EUobserver DoDo posted in yesterday's salon. "Centre-left not set for major gains in EU poll" Three pieces on the same story, three different headlines. The European press is doing quite well in its division of labour.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 04:31:55 PM EST
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On the think about it competition, Eveline de Winter has written about the predict09 site from a Belgian perspective.

Th!nk about it: The predictor

Although the socialist would be happy with this prognosis, because at the moment they are not scoring so well in the Belgian polls, I do see a problem with the conclusion. They still count the Flemish socialist as a coalition of SPA and Spirit. This shows a lack of knowledge of the Belgian politics. Since April of 2008 Spirit had been called VlaamsProgressieven until the split of the coalition with SPA in January and then they changed their name into Sociale Liberale Partij (SLP). So the coalition no longer exists. Another coalition that is no more is CD&V - NVA. In the tables you can only find Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (CD&V), NV-A is not even mentioned. So the fragmentation of votes will be even bigger than the researchers have predicted. Belgium may be a small country, but if they have made the same mistakes with other countries the fault margin will be even bigger than normal.

So although it seems like a good initiative you immediately begin to wonder about the accuracy of these predictions. You can actually find an answer on the site. Are they accurate? Fat chance. The creators themselves admit that it's not clear yet which parties or coalitions will still be standing in the upcoming elections and more importantly it's also not clear yet how the economic crises will affect voting behaviour.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2009 at 05:37:49 PM EST
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