The next European Parliament will lean slightly more to the left, but the centre-right EPP-ED will remain the largest group, political scientists predicted this morning (7 April).

Despite the difficulties faced by Socialist parties in France, Germany, Italy and the UK, the Socialist group overall is predicted to win 209 seats, an increase in its share from 27% to 28%. The Left group is also slated to do better and increase its share of the vote from 5% to 6.5%. The EPP-ED will see a slight dip in its share of seats, from 37% to 34%, but is predicted to win 249 seats, so maintaining its status as the biggest group in the Parliament. The EPP-ED's top ranking would survive the defection of the UK's Conservative party and the Czech Republic's Civil Democratic party (ODS) to form a new group.

Th!nk about it: The predictor

Although the socialist would be happy with this prognosis, because at the moment they are not scoring so well in the Belgian polls, I do see a problem with the conclusion. They still count the Flemish socialist as a coalition of SPA and Spirit. This shows a lack of knowledge of the Belgian politics. Since April of 2008 Spirit had been called VlaamsProgressieven until the split of the coalition with SPA in January and then they changed their name into Sociale Liberale Partij (SLP). So the coalition no longer exists. Another coalition that is no more is CD&V - NVA. In the tables you can only find Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (CD&V), NV-A is not even mentioned. So the fragmentation of votes will be even bigger than the researchers have predicted. Belgium may be a small country, but if they have made the same mistakes with other countries the fault margin will be even bigger than normal.

So although it seems like a good initiative you immediately begin to wonder about the accuracy of these predictions. You can actually find an answer on the site. Are they accurate? Fat chance. The creators themselves admit that it's not clear yet which parties or coalitions will still be standing in the upcoming elections and more importantly it's also not clear yet how the economic crises will affect voting behaviour.