Problems with organizing humanitarian intervention: Kosovo as a case | 143 comments (140 topical, 3 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The EU as humanitarian intervention (none / 1)

Well, except for the indictees vs. other people's civilians measure, Bosniaks weren't involved in the slaughter in the War in Croatia, and Croats were responsible for the smaller part of that 33,000.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Mar 12th, 2009 at 02:51:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The EU as humanitarian intervention (none / 0)

Sure, it's a just a ballpark figure, with some very, very crude assumptions.

But then, the only thing I was trying to establish with my little back-of-the-envelope calculation is that a 1:3 ratio between Serb and Croat indictees isn't completely outrageous when you look at the casualty figures.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Mar 12th, 2009 at 04:11:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The EU as humanitarian intervention (none / 1)

Your indictees vs. other people's civilians figure maintained the 1:3 ratio :-)

Here is a comparison trying to accredit civilian deads, 'generously' assuming that 20% of the ethnic Bosniak (Muslim) civilian dead were killed by ethnic Croat militias and 80% by Serb ones (I suspect the ratio may be even more tilted), splitting Bosnian Serb civilian dead between Croats and Bosniaks (Muslims), and Bosnian Croat (Migeru's "Hercegovine") dead between Bosniaks (Muslims) and Serbs.

Serbian indictments vs. other people's dead civilians: 100/(4500+26400+500+950) = 1/323.5

Croat indictments vs. other people's dead civilians: 29/(2300+6600+1800) ~ 1/335

Bosnian indictments vs. other people's dead civilians: 8/(1800+950) ~ 1/340

Surprisingly close.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 05:17:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The EU as humanitarian intervention (none / 0)

Your indictees vs. other people's civilians figure maintained the 1:3 ratio :-)

No, it demonstrated that the results were unstable by up to an order of magnitude (one favoured Serbians over Croats by half an order of magnitude, the other the other way round), depending on which metric one uses. Which means that, pending a more detailed analysis - which it wasn't my job to do, since I wasn't trying to prove anything - any ratio below an order of magnitude in difference is not inherently suspicious.

I used two simple metrics in order to get a ballpark figure for the sensitivity to choice between simple metrics, and demonstrate that Val's simple metric was well within the sensitivity to choice of metric.

I can't really comment on your analysis, because it uses assumptions derived from knowledge of the general sequence of events during the war, which I don't know anything about.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Mar 13th, 2009 at 11:04:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Problems with organizing humanitarian intervention: Kosovo as a case | 143 comments (140 topical, 3 editorial, 0 hidden)

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