Yes you're right about Bashir. My point however is this: If real force is excluded de facto, and Bashir is strengthened internally because of the warrant as he seems to be, isn't it likely that mediation is hampered by this action? Let alone the fact that this can be interpreted as "a slap in the face for the African Union". Or that totally predictable results of this action might prove deadly...

The only positive role this might play is adding some sort of leverage: "make a reasonable deal Bashir, and we'll withdraw the charges"... However I doubt that he cares that much, especially given that most of Africa and the Arab world is signaling that they won't accept the warrant. It might even harden his stance. It seems risky either way.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake