European elections: 33% turnout predicted | 27 comments (27 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

Methinks it also has to do with the nature of the campaigns: content-free, and almost only national in focus, making the elections pointless.

(If I'll find the time, I'll put together a diary on some campaign slogans in Hungary).

Even at the one place where the EP elections seem to count something, in Bavaria, it's for local reasons: the Bavarian CSU is struggling to pass the 5% limit valid across all of federal Germany on its own. So the CSU is making a lot of noise, while various public interest groups try to push the CSU in its tight situation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 03:52:48 AM EST

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

DoDo:

Methinks it also has to do with the nature of the campaigns: content-free, and almost only national in focus, making the elections pointless.

Classic second-order election problem.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 03:57:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (4.00 / 2)

No, an enhanced case: not just the electors but the contestants treat it as such.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 04:06:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

True. But this is a chicken-and-egg problem. Does the public perceive the elections as unimportant because the campaign is conducted on national issues and the parties stack their lists with small fry or old glories? Or do the parties only talk about national issues because that's where the voter interest lies. Do candidates themselves (rightly?) perceive that being in Strasbourg disconnect thems from the home country patronage networks in a way that is damaging to their careers?

It also appears the European Parliament is the original second-order election

The term has appeared for the first time in Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt's "Nine second-order national elections -A conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results" article for the European Journal of Political Research, in 1980.

(Wiki)

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 04:36:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (4.00 / 2)

I don't really see how an election that is not about deciding who gets actual power can become important on its own. As long as the EP doesn't actually contest the Commission head, as long as the EP presidency is shared between the two largest parties, as long as the parties aren't all that united, as long as EP votes are decided by motivated MEPs who didn't get elected by themselves (and the MEPs that matter will either be certainly reelected or have been booted from their national lists)... The EP elections won't matter. What's the point of choosing between the 13th guy on the PS list and 20th guy on the UMP list, both guy who won't have any influence, action or even presence in Brussels ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 04:46:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

Well, if the media reported properly about the activity of the EU rather than doing celebrity reporting about the Council and Barroso people would realise how important the EP actually is.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 05:23:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

Even if the media correctly reported about EP activities, the elections would still lack political importance - there's only one candidate for Commission head...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 05:50:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

And he is unelected...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 06:13:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

Not any more or less than most Prime Ministers...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 07:39:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

Well, he's not even appointed by the European Parliament.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 08:42:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

In Spain it is the King who appoints the PM, in France the PM is appointed by the President and then the whole government is confirmed by the parliament... In the UK, the PM is appointed by the queen...

The power to accept or not a nomination, which the EP has if I'm not mistaken, is a power to appoint in effect. If the EP chooses to take that power.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:09:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

It would be rare for the King, Queen or President to not appoint the (list) leader of the largest party, known beforehand. The Council has much more freedom picking the Commission President.

Then again, without a Grand Coalition in the EP... different developments would have been possible.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

But then, the problem is that the European political scene is pretty much without strong parties ; in France in the third or fourth republics, choosing the PM among various possible candidates was the most important role of the President. Yet he had to choose one that suited the parliament. Right now the Council doesn't give a damn about the Parliament.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:23:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

The Council is, itself, like the Senate (very much like the German Bundesrat in that the States' presidents actually sit on it, or like the Swiss Federal Council). It is a coequal organ with the Parliament and so can ignore it.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

Without strong parties? I'm afraig the EPP is not only the largest by MEPs and State governments but also the one that is starting to act strategically about placing their own at the top of EU institutions. (And Blair is now clearly a Christian Democrat even if he's nominally PES)

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:34:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 0)

What's the voter discipline like for EPP MEP's ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 09:46:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: European elections: 33% turnout predicted (none / 1)

I'm a party member so I've seen the internal workings of selecting our MEP candidates, and receive updates every so often about the work that my elected MEPs have been doing. I'm not always clear on whether correspondence I get will have an audience wider than party members but I suspect not.

So for people who are not politically involved or aware, I am not surprised that there is little interest because unless you go looking you aren't likely to come across information that puts these elections into much context for you as an individual. The media aren't running with it yet. So what will motivate people to vote on something they have little concept of (in the UK at least)?

I'm wondering if any social research or more detailed opinion polls have been carried out looking at people's perceptions of the EU, MEPS etc.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 14th, 2009 at 04:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

European elections: 33% turnout predicted | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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