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RGE 2009 Global Economic Outlook (via email, hence no link).

Many analysts and commentators are pointing out that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are still contracting but a slower rather than accelerated rate) and that green shoots of an economic recovery are blossoming.

RGE Monitor's analysis of the data suggests that the global economic contraction is still in full swing with a very severe, a deep and protracted U-shaped recession.

Last year's economic consensus forecast of a V-shaped short and shallow recession has vanished. While the rate of economic contraction is slowing compared to the free fall rates of Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009, we are still a long way away from the economic bottom and from a sustained recovery of growth.

In particular, in Europe and Japan there is little evidence of a positive second derivative of economic activity.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 04:00:44 PM EST
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