I've been watching that, too.  I do think the positive second derivative is relevant, but I don't think it suggests that the bottom, let alone recovery, is right around the corner.  It's positive, but not by much, and the rate of decline is still very, very steep.

There will be some recovery in 2010.  I think -- or if I had to guess, my guess would be -- it should bottom out around the end of 2009.  But we'll see.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.