Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Here's another piece, from the other day:

Investors are talking of 'green shoots' of recovery and of positive 'second derivatives of economic activity' (continuing economic contraction is the first, negative, derivative, but the slower rate suggests that the bottom is near).

As a result, stock markets have started to rally in the US and around the world. Markets seem to believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the economy and for the battered profits of corporations and financial firms.

This consensus optimism is, I believe, not supported by the facts (...)

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 12:02:18 PM EST
I've been watching that, too.  I do think the positive second derivative is relevant, but I don't think it suggests that the bottom, let alone recovery, is right around the corner.  It's positive, but not by much, and the rate of decline is still very, very steep.

There will be some recovery in 2010.  I think -- or if I had to guess, my guess would be -- it should bottom out around the end of 2009.  But we'll see.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Apr 24th, 2009 at 07:49:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series