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Ummm, with a symmetrical exhange of ethnic Turks between the Berlin Greens and SPD, why exactly would voters abandon one party in one direction?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 1st, 2009 at 05:32:37 AM EST
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Assume there is a single probability (per voter, independent of the party) that voters will follow a defecting leader. Then when there is a symmetric exchange the party with the largest number of voters loses and the party with the smaller following gains.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 1st, 2009 at 05:35:14 AM EST
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In this case, the voter group that is considered is ethnic Turks in Berlin -- and I am not sure the SPD exceeds the Greens that much there (if at all). Nanne?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 1st, 2009 at 05:37:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Greens have very good ties with the Turkish community in Berlin, that is for sure. Germany-wide, though, the Turks prefer the SPD (56% to 23% for the Greens).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Jun 1st, 2009 at 02:35:12 PM EST
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