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What % of the vote do the BNP need to win in order to get MEPs elected? - c. 5%?  The only poll I have seen puts them close to that.  How are the UKIP doing - are they fishing (partly) in the same pond?  Or is the anti-Labour feeling so great that the Conservatives will sweep up votes that previously went UKIP?

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 11:34:08 AM EST
I was speaking to my MP about this.  He still isn't convinced that people trust David Cameron and doesn't think that the Conservatives are really making the gains they say they are/want to.  But he is a Labour MP so maybe he would say that.  He seems fairly tuned in though.

It is notable that the Tories have been complaining that the BNP have been taking their votes which amuses me on many levels.  UKIP aren't very credible but they could be pinching some of the right's votes.

I can't remember what % of the vote the BNP need but it is within reach for them. Just.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 11:43:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Already in the United Kingdom general election, 2005
The Labour Party lost approximately 6% of the vote across Wales, with losses varying by region. However, Labour managed to mitigate their losses in losing only six seats. The Conservatives returned MPs from Wales for the first time since 1997 with three Welsh seats on a slightly increased share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats also improved their share of the vote slightly and won two additional seats, one from Labour and one from Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, saw a slight decline in its vote, losing a seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Peter Law, standing as an independent candidate in protest at the imposition of an all-female candidate shortlist by the national Labour Party, managed to overturn a Labour majority of 19,313 to win Blaenau Gwent.

For what it's worth.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 11:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nornally a three way spit in the rightwing vote BNP/UKIP/Con would be a good way to minimise their seats, but with a PR system it doesn't work out that way - provided each get over. c. 5-10% in most constituencies.  With a low poll that should be very doable.  Hell maybe even libertas will steal a few votes!  Because the votes aren't transferable (as in Ireland), a vote for such minor parties below the d'Hondt threshold are basically wasted votes.

It would however damage the Tory credibility and performance if they were forced to compete with the others in a general election.  The problem for Labour is that they don't appear to have a credible alternative to Brown.  Cameron has been "brand building" for a while and it is difficult to see who could compete against him.

Can you see even a "green shoots" scenario saving Labour?

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 12:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See the table in European Parliament election, 2009 (United Kingdom): Constituencies & representation.

You're guaranteed a seat in South East England with 9% of the vote, in London and North West England with 11% of the vote, in the East of England with 12% of the vote, and in the rest with 15% to 25% of the vote.

In the North West constituency where Nick Griffin is running, the last (9th) MEP was elected with a quota of 7.95% - This was LibDem Saj Karim who later defected to the Tories presumably doubting that the Lib Dems would be able to win two seats out of only 8 in 2009.

The 8th MEP (Labour's Robert Atkins) was elected with a quota of 8.1% - The BNP got 6.4% of the vote.

The 7th MEP was a Tory at 9.1% and the 6th MEP was went to the UKIP with 11.7%.

There is plenty of room for the UKIP to leak support towards the BNP and still have both of them win an MEP regardless of the Green Party campaign to stop the BNP, and with Labour and the Lib Dems losing one MEP each. But Griffin does have to score 8% of the vote.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 12:37:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Saj Karim was indeed rewarded with a safe 2nd place on the Tory candidate list for the North West.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 12:40:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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