Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Nornally a three way spit in the rightwing vote BNP/UKIP/Con would be a good way to minimise their seats, but with a PR system it doesn't work out that way - provided each get over. c. 5-10% in most constituencies.  With a low poll that should be very doable.  Hell maybe even libertas will steal a few votes!  Because the votes aren't transferable (as in Ireland), a vote for such minor parties below the d'Hondt threshold are basically wasted votes.

It would however damage the Tory credibility and performance if they were forced to compete with the others in a general election.  The problem for Labour is that they don't appear to have a credible alternative to Brown.  Cameron has been "brand building" for a while and it is difficult to see who could compete against him.

Can you see even a "green shoots" scenario saving Labour?

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 6th, 2009 at 12:08:35 PM EST
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