Take a long look at the chart below. Digest it. Maybe look again if you have to. This happened in the most sophisticated economy in the world.

This is what happened to the price of development land in Japan. Prices roared upwards and then collapsed, ending up below where they started at the beginning at the boom. This is likely to happen here; development land is likely to settle back to 1996 prices. We haven't seen the half of it yet. When we hear some property lads talking about green shoots, this chart should be enough to tell them to snap out of it.

But we can't seem to snap out of it. We are still caught in the trap. We seem to believe that the price of houses and land will miraculously rise again some time soon. This will not happen. It can't and shouldn't. In fact, houses prices are likely to fall another 50 per cent from here before we see anything like the bottom.

International comparisons bear out these forecasts. Until now, many Irish people have clung to the myth of what I call `Dunnes Stores economics'. You know it: it is the school that suggests ``the difference is we're Irish''. Well, the bad news is that being Irish makes no difference at all. It offers no protection. What happened to the Japanese will happen here and, in terms of the recovery, the sooner the better.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson