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Japan Has Spring sprung in Japan? Some are seeing signs of green shoots. Industrial production rose 1.6% month-over-month in March (the first gain in six months), while exports were up 2.2%. Japan's Economy Watchers' Survey has picked up from its record-low in December 2008. Meanwhile, the government's roughly $150 billion fiscal stimulus package, announced in April, is expected to provide a big jolt to the economy. When you scratch the surface, however, these green shoots seem like nothing more than flights of fancy. Industrial production may have risen m/m in March, but production was still in freefall in y/y terms, dropping 35%. And while most analysts agree that the fiscal stimulus package will boost growth, most see this as only a short-term phenomenon. Exports, production and capital expenditure have collapsed and the seeds of recovery are not yet visible. Given Japan's anemic domestic demand, most analysts agree that economic recovery depends upon the future course of Japan's exports. That means a recovery will depend heavily on an upturn in overseas economies or a restructuring of Japan's domestic economy.
Has Spring sprung in Japan? Some are seeing signs of green shoots.
Industrial production rose 1.6% month-over-month in March (the first gain in six months), while exports were up 2.2%. Japan's Economy Watchers' Survey has picked up from its record-low in December 2008. Meanwhile, the government's roughly $150 billion fiscal stimulus package, announced in April, is expected to provide a big jolt to the economy.
When you scratch the surface, however, these green shoots seem like nothing more than flights of fancy. Industrial production may have risen m/m in March, but production was still in freefall in y/y terms, dropping 35%. And while most analysts agree that the fiscal stimulus package will boost growth, most see this as only a short-term phenomenon.
Exports, production and capital expenditure have collapsed and the seeds of recovery are not yet visible. Given Japan's anemic domestic demand, most analysts agree that economic recovery depends upon the future course of Japan's exports. That means a recovery will depend heavily on an upturn in overseas economies or a restructuring of Japan's domestic economy.
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