Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Not a long way off is between 50 to 100 years. In Germany, for example, the declining population of ethnic Germans coupled with a fast growing population of Muslims is likely to cause civil strife in the time-frame outlined above.
by vladimir on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
vladimir:
likely
Do you mean more likely than not?

I think you're exaggerating. In fact, I think you're projecting Kosovo onto the whole of Europe. The problem is not religion or multiculturalism but the declining economic opportunity over the past 30 years.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So thats discounting the secularisation process that is happening in Western European countries? Whats special about Muslims that they will be able to resist these cultual forces?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:15:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It appears Europe's majority party is intent on slowing down the secularisation process (or at least welcomes its slowing-down). And then they'll complain about religious extremism.

EPP | European People's Party

Concluding the interfaith dialogue, the EPP President, Wilfried MARTENS, announced that the EPP will support the launching of a European charter for interfaith dialogue aiming to set up a European platform for this dialogue: "We see in society a revival of religions and of religious identity. It will be important to connect in an intelligent way, identity and openness to each other at the moment that there is a call for a stronger affirmation of the own identity of all religions."


The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:18:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but that has been something politicians have been talking about for fifty years now, at a minimum. It hasn't noticeably slowed things down though.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eeeep... another linearisation of trends into the infinite.

If you look at the immigrant population of Germany from Muslim countries more closely, you'd see that birth rates and religiousity decline strongly with time... in other words, there is significant assimilation...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo, you can't bring actual demographic data into the debate, it's not fair...

Qantara.de - Predicting a "de-Islamicised Muslim World" (2008)

"There will not be a clash of civilisations" is the most important message they bear. But Emmanuel Todd and Youssef Courbage do not want merely to assuage the West's fear of Islamicisation. They want to prove that the Islamic world is in the midst of radical change that will eventually bring modernity to the seemingly entrenched societies of the Islamic world. A quiet, but inexorable and dramatic revolution. Mass literacy and a decline in the birth-rate in Muslim societies are making such far-reaching social change possible.

...

On its path into modernity the Islamic world is experiencing a transitional crisis, conclude the demographers. The reactionary forces are fighting what will ultimately be a losing battle, even if radical Islamism is momentarily the strongest political reaction to this transitional crisis.



The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In fact, the fertility rate in Turkey is now pretty close to the reproduction rate: 2.21 according to the 2009 estimate of the CIA's World Factbook, and 2.2 in 2006 according to Turkstat. (In the second link, annual data from 1990 shows the decline in this and the growth rate nicely.)

As for the wider Muslim world, a nice graph from a German article on the subject:

As for Muslims in Germany,

(From top to bottom: Turkish women in Turkey, Turkish women in Germany, German [women], German Muslim women.)

Now that was demographics. As for secularisation, with focus on Turkish immigrants to Germany, I summed up results of a few studies in this comment on ET (in 2005).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 07:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I shall note a special effect: the "Turkish women in Germany" category doesn't involve the ethnic Turkish citizens of Germany (e.g. the most assimilated part): only Turkish citizens.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 07:59:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a long way off is between 50 to 100 years. In Germany, for example, the declining population of ethnic Germans coupled with a fast growing population of Muslims is likely to cause civil strife in the time-frame outlined above.

Sigh...you know...I have elderly relatives (of whom I am NOT proud), who would say exactly the same thing about Catholics. According to them, the bans on contraception and abortion are a Catholic plot to take over the world by outbreeding everybody else.

All I can say is that every reason (and there are many) why that is an abhorrent point of view applies equally when the target is Muslims.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 04:38:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series