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DoDo, you can't bring actual demographic data into the debate, it's not fair...

Qantara.de - Predicting a "de-Islamicised Muslim World" (2008)

"There will not be a clash of civilisations" is the most important message they bear. But Emmanuel Todd and Youssef Courbage do not want merely to assuage the West's fear of Islamicisation. They want to prove that the Islamic world is in the midst of radical change that will eventually bring modernity to the seemingly entrenched societies of the Islamic world. A quiet, but inexorable and dramatic revolution. Mass literacy and a decline in the birth-rate in Muslim societies are making such far-reaching social change possible.

...

On its path into modernity the Islamic world is experiencing a transitional crisis, conclude the demographers. The reactionary forces are fighting what will ultimately be a losing battle, even if radical Islamism is momentarily the strongest political reaction to this transitional crisis.



The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 06:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In fact, the fertility rate in Turkey is now pretty close to the reproduction rate: 2.21 according to the 2009 estimate of the CIA's World Factbook, and 2.2 in 2006 according to Turkstat. (In the second link, annual data from 1990 shows the decline in this and the growth rate nicely.)

As for the wider Muslim world, a nice graph from a German article on the subject:

As for Muslims in Germany,

(From top to bottom: Turkish women in Turkey, Turkish women in Germany, German [women], German Muslim women.)

Now that was demographics. As for secularisation, with focus on Turkish immigrants to Germany, I summed up results of a few studies in this comment on ET (in 2005).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 07:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I shall note a special effect: the "Turkish women in Germany" category doesn't involve the ethnic Turkish citizens of Germany (e.g. the most assimilated part): only Turkish citizens.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jun 2nd, 2009 at 07:59:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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