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The interesting question will be the time frame. Khamenei seems now quite vulnerable to event risk and it is likely that Rafsanjani and other power brokers in Iran are and will be working on options and will act opportunistically.  George Packer posted an interesting article comparing the potentials for change in Burma and Iran on The New Yorker blog on June 17: Green and Saffron.  He finds it unlikely for a number of reasons that hardliners can as successfully stonewall in Iran as they continue to do in Burma.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:07:50 AM EST
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