Well then too bad for the UK, with sympathies to Euro-philes who live there.

JakeS: The second scenario would seriously destabilise Europe, probably to the point of igniting at least a couple of minor wars, and quite possibly a major one.

I supposed that this scenario was so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about.  Are you saying that UK withdrawal could encourage other countries to withdraw as well?  Or that the EU without the UK would not be able to sustain itself (administratively, financially, economically, whatever)?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

except the Americans (who treat them like a disposable landing strip today...)

Now that's not fair.  We use them for moral cover, too.

And, anyway, it's not like we treat them as a disposable landing strip for the same reason anymore.  It's just that the President knows the PM is Dead Man Walking, so we reckon we might as well cosy up to Merkel and Sarko.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

In the first scenario, the UK is basically a glorified version of Iceland, except that they've managed to piss off everybody nearby

• the EU remains, and the UK is a quasi-member à la Switzerland/Norway/EEA (ie, most of the regulations and ease of access remain); or

• the EU remains, and starts treating the UK like a foreign country, like the US is treated, for instance(ie no access to EU passport lines, to intra-EU trade rules, etc...).