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The second scenario would seriously destabilise Europe, probably to the point of igniting at least a couple of minor wars, and quite possibly a major one.
Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Well then too bad for the UK, with sympathies to Euro-philes who live there.
JakeS: The second scenario would seriously destabilise Europe, probably to the point of igniting at least a couple of minor wars, and quite possibly a major one.
I supposed that this scenario was so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about. Are you saying that UK withdrawal could encourage other countries to withdraw as well? Or that the EU without the UK would not be able to sustain itself (administratively, financially, economically, whatever)?
Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
I supposed that this scenario was so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about.
Well, that's true. So the selling point for the UK would not so much be "Europe will disintegrate into bloody, messy wars without the UK in the EU" as "Iceland is not in the EU. Ireland is in the EU. Which one would you guys prefer to be?"
But of course that argument cannot hope to be effective if the British still labour under the delusion that the UK is a serious world power.
except the Americans (who treat them like a disposable landing strip today...)
Now that's not fair. We use them for moral cover, too.
And, anyway, it's not like we treat them as a disposable landing strip for the same reason anymore. It's just that the President knows the PM is Dead Man Walking, so we reckon we might as well cosy up to Merkel and Sarko.
Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
In the first scenario, the UK is basically a glorified version of Iceland, except that they've managed to piss off everybody nearby
But I just thought of an exceedingly nasty scenario: What if a couple of the kingdoms secede and petition the EU for membership. Now that would be a nasty flash point. Imagine the reaction of a Tory government that had just pulled out of the EU to Wales and Scotland seceding and sending a polite "can we join, pretty please?" letter to Bruxelles.
Which would be perfectly ironic - the UK breaking up completely because it refuses to give up some of its sovereignty by joining the EU.
It would also put Northern Ireland in an interesting position.
at a cost:
What if we Left the European Union? | BERR
If we wished to continue trading with the EU - for example as a member of European Free Trade Area (EFTA ) (like Switzerland) or the European Economic Area (EEA) (like Norway) - we would still have to comply with EU laws, while having no say in negotiating them. We might even have to keep up contributions to the EU budget as the price of continued access to the Single Market, but get nothing in return.
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