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JakeS: In the first scenario, the UK is basically a glorified version of Iceland, except that they've managed to piss off everybody nearby, except the Americans (who treat them like a disposable landing strip today...), whereas Iceland can still draw on Nordic solidarity.

Well then too bad for the UK, with sympathies to Euro-philes who live there.

JakeS: The second scenario would seriously destabilise Europe, probably to the point of igniting at least a couple of minor wars, and quite possibly a major one.

I supposed that this scenario was so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about.  Are you saying that UK withdrawal could encourage other countries to withdraw as well?  Or that the EU without the UK would not be able to sustain itself (administratively, financially, economically, whatever)?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Mon Jun 8th, 2009 at 06:47:11 PM EST
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I supposed that this scenario was so unlikely as to be not worth worrying about.

Well, that's true. So the selling point for the UK would not so much be "Europe will disintegrate into bloody, messy wars without the UK in the EU" as "Iceland is not in the EU. Ireland is in the EU. Which one would you guys prefer to be?"

But of course that argument cannot hope to be effective if the British still labour under the delusion that the UK is a serious world power.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 8th, 2009 at 07:11:38 PM EST
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