Sorry for the late reply.  I intended to say nothing about population growth rates, but rather to comment on the notion of "overpopulation" as a primary driver for refugees.

On your point, though, I agree entirely that that is a nasty combination.  However, I don't generally think that, generally speaking, a "surplus" of population can be blamed for poor economic conditions, but rather political issues and the local, national, and regional level.  

Given the presence of local politically-based blockages to economic development (parasitic elites sucking dry anything and everything that produces revenue), population growth does make existing problems worse.  But I don't think it can be blamed for the existence of those problems.  It should be remembered that every country that underwent an industrial revolution did so during a population explosion.  Those were special times and special circumstances, obviously - and it is those times and circumstances, not population growth or the lack thereof - that is the important thing to look at.

On another front, environmental stability, absolute population numbers are far more important, I think.  However, that is a different issue from the one under discussion here.