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I think it has been a disaster for the US economy and society to allow the US to become the consumer of last resort and to encourage US citizens to draw equity out of their homes to maintain consumption levels. That only provided a temporary benefit to Wall Street, which is now gone, but the debt remains. And far too much of our manufacturing remains in China and elsewhere. Those who maintained that we could not survive as a nation of service providers and hamburger flippers are being proved right.
China has committed to increasing domestic spending, and, as they have vast social infrastructure needs this will help, as will similar spending in India. But the total size of the domestic, as opposed to the export sides of those economies is small compared to the need.
These factors were all well described in a prescient article by Dr. André Lara Resende, a well-known Brazilian economist, whose paper, After the Crisis: Macro Imbalance, Credibility and Reserve-Currency William Buiter made the subject of his June 6 Mavercon blog. It remains worth a read. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
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