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A week ago I made a comment derived from reading the Zero Hedge article you cite in which I questioned the vigor and sustainability of the reported recovery in France and Germany.  Given the role that the US consumer has played for the last decade+ in maintaining growth in the global economy I had doubts as to the US consumer continuing to play that role and concerns about the impact that would have on the global economy.  I was not trying to say that Europe was doomed or to gloat that you were in the same boat as the USA, although that may have been how my comment was perceived.

I think it has been a disaster for the US economy and society to allow the US to become the consumer of last resort and to encourage US citizens to draw equity out of their homes to maintain consumption levels.  That only provided a temporary benefit to Wall Street, which is now gone, but the debt remains.  And far too much of our manufacturing remains in China and elsewhere.  Those who maintained that we could not survive as a nation of service providers and hamburger flippers are being proved right.

China has committed to increasing domestic spending, and, as they have vast social infrastructure needs this will help, as will similar spending in India.  But the total size of the domestic, as opposed to the export sides of those economies is small compared to the need.

These factors were all well described in a prescient article by Dr.  André Lara Resende, a well-known Brazilian economist, whose paper, After the Crisis: Macro Imbalance, Credibility and Reserve-Currency  William Buiter made the subject of his June 6 Mavercon blog.  It remains worth a read.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Aug 19th, 2009 at 09:59:02 PM EST
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