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Peak in 2020 is not impossible, but in my opinion it's pretty much the most optimistic scenario imaginable. 2010-2020 is my best guess.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Aug 3rd, 2009 at 09:37:28 AM EST
And it may turn out to already be behind us.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Aug 3rd, 2009 at 10:04:35 AM EST
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And that was when they changed the baseline of measurement.  Light sweet crude had been the standard, due to its desirability over other grades of oil.  Now they throw crap crude (heavy sour crude, reconstituted tar sand, whatever) into the mix, to improve the numbers.  Its a little like adding lead to debase your gold coins.  

Peak All Petroleum Liquids 2008.  

Last I looked, we are well into 2009, so the use of future tense is really inappropriate--unless we get very, very lucky, and with the major fields in rapid decline that is defintely a long shot. .  

Well, the media will be speculating on "when peak oil will arrive" long after oil has become available only on the black market and you have to know somebody to arrange a buy.  

Meanwhile the real news is who is now admitting the state of decline, after years of stonewalling.  

Official pronouncements are now up to last year.  

I can't wait for the new spin.  Maybe tarsands will save us . . .

The "Rubicon" was crossed in 2001, when the US decided that the remaining oil would be fought for, and began implementing that decision.  All else follows.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Aug 4th, 2009 at 07:59:52 PM EST
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The new spin in the US will be the oil shale out in Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.  No idea where we're going to get the water for that in the region of the country where they...lack water, and just wait until the environmental catastrophes begin.

But that'll be the spin.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Aug 7th, 2009 at 08:11:34 AM EST
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... semantic gamesmanship in terms of what is counted as "oil" (tar sands, etc.) ... so if we reach Peak "Oil and Similar Commodities" by 2020, that means that if we have not reached peak "conventional crude oil" in 2005, we will be hitting it shortly.

And of course as the average price of crude oil trends up, consumption of oil inside oil producing countries tends to rise, so "Peak Oil Available for Export" clearly hits before "Peak Oil Production".

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Aug 3rd, 2009 at 12:11:29 PM EST
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