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SZ, early results

18:03 Uhr Saarland: Die erste Prognose sagt Ministerpräsident Peter Müller eine schwere Schlappe voraus. Die CDU büßt nach den Zahlen des ZDF 12 Prozentpunkte ein und liegt bei 35 Prozent. Die SPD erreicht 26 Prozent, die FDP 10 Prozent, die Grünen 6 - und die Linke mit ihrem Spitzenkandidat Oskar Lafontaine bekommt 19,5 Prozent.

Saarland: CDU loses 12%, down to 35%, SPD 26%, FDP up to 10, Greens 6 and Left 19.5%.

18:08 Uhr Thüringen: Der neue Landtag in Erfurt wird bunter: Fünf Parteien werden wohl im Parlament vertreten sein. Auf der Grundlage der ersten ZDF-Prognose kommt die CDU auf 30 Sitze, die FDP kann 8 Abgeordnete entsenden. Linke, SPD und Grüne kommen gemeinsam auf 50 Sitze - dies wäre eine komfortable Mehrheit.

Thuringen: comfortable majority for Left, SPD and Greens.

18:16 Uhr Sachsen: Die sächsische CDU verliert laut Prognose nur minimal und kommt auf 41,0 Prozent der Stimmen (2004: 41,1). Die SPD kann ihr katastrophales Ergebnis von vor fünf Jahren demnach nicht nennenswert verbessern und kommt auf 10 Prozent (2004: 9,8). Die Linke verliert 2,6 Prozentpunkte und erreicht 21 (2004: 23,6), die Grünen verbessern sich auf 6 Prozent (2004: 5,1). Großer Gewinner ist die FDP. Die Liberalen gewinnen deutlich dazu und kommen auf 10,5 Prozent (2004: 5,9). Sie könnten nun die SPD als Juniorpartner der CDU ersetzen. Die rechtsextreme NPD erhält vier Prozent weniger als vor fünf Jahren. Mit 5,1 Prozent ist ihr Einzug in den Landtag fraglich

Saxony: Not much change. Tiny loss for the CDU (41%), tiny gain for SPD (10%), Left loses slightly (21%), Greens gain slightly (6%). Most significant changes: Big gain for the FDP (up to 10.5%) and the NPD might be out.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 12:31:11 PM EST
For Thuringia, this is a bigger beating that expected for the CDU, see the polls here.

So long, Dieter Althaus.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 12:35:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its interesting that the 'swing' vs. the polls seems entirely from the CDU to the... Left Party. Even more interestingly you'll find the same pattern for Saarland -- could there be a systematic error in the corrections done by pollsters?

In Saxony, the significant difference is the SPD getting less.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:51:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There might be exit polls that show the real 'swing' at some point, are you referring to that? I don't know how many CDU voters would genuinely move to the Left Party, though of course some are possible. The Left party doesn't neglect its socially eehm... less liberal wing, least of all Lafontaine.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I put it in scare quotes -- it's only from comparing numbers in the last few pre-election poll and in present projections, and seeing all other parties unchanged. We'll see in exit polls where Left Party voters came from.

The Left party doesn't neglect its socially eehm... less liberal wing, least of all Lafontaine.

Hm-mmm. Note that most voters the CDU lost are likely to have been... SPD voters a decade ago.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How is this going to be spun as a victory of the right? Should we expect arguments about how evil it would be for the SPD to ally with the Links?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 12:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Big increase for the FDP everywhere?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 12:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
d'oh!

of course, missed that. The Zeit is already there:

Schwere CDU-Verluste an der Saar und in Thüringen, doch nur leichter Rückenwind für die SPD-Aufholjagd vor der Bundestagswahl: Die Landtagswahlen in Thüringen, Sachsen und im Saarland haben laut ersten Hochrechnungen vor allem die FDP gestärkt. In Thüringen und im Saarland könnte es sowohl rot-rot-grüne als auch "Jamaika"-Bündnisse aus CDU, FDP und Grünen oder Große Koalitionen geben. In Sachsen läuft alles auf Schwarz-Gelb zu.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:12:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm...

In early November I am going to be at a small person event where the editor of the Zeit is going to be giving a lecture on 1989 and Germany.  I was already thinking that a question about the rise of the Left party was in order given that they've broken through the Fulda Gap, so to speak.  Doubly so now.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 06:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hard to see this being spun as a victory for the right, but there are 2 things the media is going to focus on.

  1. in Saarland, there might be the first coalition with the left in the old western states. This will inevitably be hyped as a sign of things to come. I don't think the public will react in the same way as in Hessen, nor that the Federal SPD will be as skittish about it. Saarland is a small, peripheral state, not the West German heartland, so to say.
  2. in Thuringia, the Left party is the largest in a potential Left/SPD/Greens coalition and might field its first Minister President, which the SPD doesn't want. Whether this becomes a story or not depends on how the SPD and Left Party manage it. Policy wise the Left might as well take up the majority of the cabinet and let the SPD have their Minister President, but that would be politically harmful with regard to future elections. There's a small danger the SPD will enter into a grand coalition, though they don't have a comfortable majority there.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:05:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Based on the results displayed at ARD right now, Left Party-SPD might just be possible in Thuringia. Meanwhile, the NPD is worryingly close to 5%... (4.7%). (The NPD also made it back in Saxony, though falling back by a third vs. two years ago.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:33:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I missed Brandenburg in my earlier comment on the Bundesrat.

It looks like Brandenburg will easily retain the red/red government, and there is definitely no chance in hell of a CDU/FDP coalition there, so it does not really matter. The neonazis might get kicked out in Brandenburg, which would be good.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Check the "Rechte" resp. NPD in the Thuringia and Saxony polls. I think that there is an obvious hiding voters margin there. 'Fortunately', it seems DVU and NPD will divide far-right votes in Brandenburg, however.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The CDU/CSU was getting some of it back when some SocDems blasted Union-FDP coalitions as a sign of what to come. But by far not loud enough for my taste :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Policy wise the Left might as well take up the majority of the cabinet and let the SPD have their Minister President, but that would be politically harmful with regard to future elections.

I see the SPD is already playing balance of power.

Pokern um eine von zwei möglichen Koalitionen in Erfurt | tagesschau.de

Der thüringische SPD-Spitzenkandidat Christoph Matschie erklärte vor jubelnden Anhängern in Erfurt: "Das System Althaus ist abgewählt." Der Wahlkampf habe sich gelohnt. Ohne und gegen die SPD könne in den kommenden Jahren in Thüringen nicht regiert werden. Man werde diese Gestaltungsmöglichkeit nutzen.

...while the Left Party began to shoot preemptive shots against the SPD PM option (also preemptively) advocated by the media over the last week:

Pokern um eine von zwei möglichen Koalitionen in Erfurt | tagesschau.de

Der Fraktionschef der Linken im Bundestag, Gregor Gysi, rief die SPD in Thüringen auf, die "Spielregeln" einzuhalten und Ramelow zum Ministerpräsidenten mitzuwählen. Die stärkere Partei stelle den Regierungschef, sagte Gysi in der ARD.

Die SPD sei in Thüringen deutlich schwächer als die Linke. Es wäre den Wählern nicht zu vermitteln, wenn nun ein anderer Politiker Ministerpräsident werden würde. Der SPD-Landesvorsitzende Matschie stecke nun in der "Ypsilanti-Falle", sagte Gysi unter Anspielung auf die frühere hessische SPD-Vorsitzende Andrea Ypsilanti.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The situation is better for the Left in Thuringia for being able to govern only with the SPD, as they can trade a bit more (on the lines of "we'll let the greens in and split the posts if you give us the Minister President")
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:31:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll have to see what things look like in the morning, but if the Frankfurter Rundschau has it right, all these speculations are moot. They're predicting a 3-party parliament with CDU holding 45 of 88 seats.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're showing the graphic from the last election on their main page (changes if you click on it). Currently the Left Party+SPD have a projected 45.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 02:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah yes. Thank you.

The FAZ is telling us this:



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 03:13:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Greens are now in two East German parliaments (not counting Berlin) -- times are changing. Brandenburg could be the third in a month.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 01:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Die Linke went from 2.5% (in their 2005 PDS 'incarnation') to 19.5% in the Saarland?

That's ... impressive.  Also impressive is the fact they seem to have drawn those numbers from other than the SDP, down 4.2%.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 03:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It all reduces to a single variable, otherwise they would have gotten just enough to get in.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 30th, 2009 at 05:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I may have the chronology wrong, but wasn't he already there in 2005? Had he joined them so recently that most people hadn't realized it yet?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:19:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He used to be Minister President of Saarland for 13 years when he was in the SPD, and he ran again.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM confused something. In the 2005 federal elections, the Left Party already got 18.5% of list votes in Saarland. In the 2004 regional elections, PDS got 2.3%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Aug 31st, 2009 at 03:39:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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