Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Thanks for bring this conversation back onto the rails and a few notches up the intellectual scale!  Judging from afar, and without having been there, I find your points intuitively plausible.  

When the old CCP was in power, almost everybody was poor, and power came mostly from position in the political hierarchy. Now I suspect the real power is wielded by oligarchs who bribe who they have to to get what they want and bump off rivals.  

Massive and growing economic inequalities (perhaps even more so than the USA) will breed social unrest even when the whole economy is growing, and social stability depends on unrealistic growth for all going forward (so that the trickle down effect can help the poor) allied to a very authoritarian state.

Ironically it is a loss of state control which has helped generate both the overall economic growth and the massive increase in inequality, and thus unless the state can reassert some control over the capitalist class and rein them in, social unrest will increase.

I could thus see a re-emergence of Maoist type underground political activity in an attempt to rebalance the scales.  Unfortunately, in the absence of a strong civil society, respect for human rights and consumer protections I see the scope for conflict being much greater than in the US.

At least there is a (so far losing) battle against the corporate kleptocracy in the US.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 18th, 2009 at 05:50:24 AM EST
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