German Elections Open Thread | 173 comments (173 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Exit polls (none / 0)

Below 25% would be a very poor result for the SPD, lower than what they were getting in the last polls. The result for the CDU/CSU is also bad, but with this result they should be able to form a coalition with the FDP.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 1)

Damn. My hopes were not high, but if the exit polls don't err big, there will be a comfortable margin. Everyone will forget the overhang mandate debate.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:16:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 1)

Turnout is the key part in this, I think. The SPD should have put much more resources in this.

If this holds we'll see a debate within the SPD about a change in the leadership. On Phoenix they're already speculating about Nahles and Wowereit.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 0)

I think Nahles has a lot of potential, but she'd need to grow into a true national role.

Wowereit: I have no sense on how he'd play outside of Berlin (or even if he has those kinds of ambitions). What's the local take on him?

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:30:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

Wowi is popular in Berlin, and we want to keep him as mayor.

He's an excellent politician but not the sharpest analytical mind, or at least that's not how he comes across to me. Nahles also has a minor perception problem of being too much of a party operative. But she might fit well in the role of Müntefering, and Wowi might fit well in the role of Steinmeier. Of course, there would be others who aspire to that role, among them Sigmar Gabriel.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 1)

Gabriel has the ambition, but methinks he would manage to push the SPD's numbers below that of the Greens and the Left Party...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:40:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

God knows they need a new Münte, but now that they're out in the cold I think they could use a Lafontaine-like rabble-rouser more than they could a Steinmeier. I don't think being a party operative is a disadvantage right now - however moves into the party leadership right now will need to be able to build a secure base so that they can present themselves as the head of a unified party (something e.g. Beck never got). I guess together Nahles and Wowi would be a dream team.

Gabriel - I dunno. I've heard his standard speech as Environment Minister, and he is (was, now) intelligent enough to understand the problem of climate change and make it the core of his standard pitch (although he's too politically committed to coal to acknowledge the solution). But he's not stirring.

Besides, like Steinmeier and Steinbrück, he's an old Schröderite, and the IMO the SPD needs someone new if it's going to credibly rebuild.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:54:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 1)

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss?

Erleichterung bei Union, Entsetzen bei der SPD \| tagesschau.de		Erleichterung bei Union, Entsetzen bei der SPD \| tagesschau.de
Steinmeier sprach von einem "bitteren Tag für die Sozialdemokratie - da gibt es nichts drumherum zu reden". Die Ursachen müssten nun in Ruhe analysiert werden. Er kritisierte indirekt die Berichterstattung der Medien vor der Wahl - diese hätten das Wahlergebnis schon vorweggenommen. Damit habe die Partei im Wahlkampf zu kämpfen gehabt.		Steinmeier sprach von einem "bitteren Tag für die Sozialdemokratie - da gibt es nichts drumherum zu reden". Die Ursachen müssten nun in Ruhe analysiert werden. Er kritisierte indirekt die Berichterstattung der Medien vor der Wahl - diese hätten das Wahlergebnis schon vorweggenommen. Damit habe die Partei im Wahlkampf zu kämpfen gehabt.
Unter dem Beifall seiner Parteifreunde kündigte Steinmeier an, er wolle nun "Oppositionsführer" werden. Der bisherige Fraktionsvorsitzende Peter Struck hatte nicht mehr für das Parlament kandidiert. Den Wählern versprach Steienmeier, ihre Stimme für die SPD sei "nicht verloren". Die Sozialdemokraten würden nun genau darauf achten, ob die neue Regierung sich bewähre. Er habe "Zweifel, dass sie es können".		Under the applause of his fellow party members, Steinmeier announced that he now wanted to be the "leader of the opposition". Peter Struck, the present head of the parliamentary fraction, did not run for reelection. Steinmeier promised the voters that their vote for the SPD was "not lost". The Social Democrats would now carefully scrutinize the performance of the new government. He expressed "doubts that they can handle it."

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:11:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 0)

I very much doubt that someone who loses more than 10 percentage points at the polls will stay on.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 3)

Maybe Schröder can get him a job with a gas pipeline...

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 1)

This is the SPD. Not losing is not an option.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

I screwed up something, didn't I? Here's the full translation.

Erleichterung bei Union, Entsetzen bei der SPD \| tagesschau.de		Union relieved, SPD horrified
Steinmeier sprach von einem "bitteren Tag für die Sozialdemokratie - da gibt es nichts drumherum zu reden". Die Ursachen müssten nun in Ruhe analysiert werden. Er kritisierte indirekt die Berichterstattung der Medien vor der Wahl - diese hätten das Wahlergebnis schon vorweggenommen. Damit habe die Partei im Wahlkampf zu kämpfen gehabt.		Steinmeier spoke of a "bitter day for Social Democracy - there is no way around that." He added that the causes would now need to be analyzed at length. He indirectly criticized the reporting in the media in the run-up to the election - they had treated the election result as a foregone conclusion. Steinmeier said that the party had labored under this in the election campaign.
Unter dem Beifall seiner Parteifreunde kündigte Steinmeier an, er wolle nun "Oppositionsführer" werden. Der bisherige Fraktionsvorsitzende Peter Struck hatte nicht mehr für das Parlament kandidiert. Den Wählern versprach Steienmeier, ihre Stimme für die SPD sei "nicht verloren". Die Sozialdemokraten würden nun genau darauf achten, ob die neue Regierung sich bewähre. Er habe "Zweifel, dass sie es können".		Under the applause of his fellow party members, Steinmeier announced that he now wanted to be the "leader of the opposition". Peter Struck, the present head of the parliamentary fraction, did not run for reelection. Steinmeier promised the voters that their vote for the SPD was "not lost". The Social Democrats would now carefully scrutinize the performance of the new government. He expressed "doubts that they can handle it."

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

Gabriel can get excited in a speech, he often slams fist on the table, but he also rambles on for too long. Wowi can be rousing, but he's always controlled. What I like most is that he has a penchant for irony.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (none / 0)

What I like most is that he has a penchant for irony.

But is that good in the larger sense? I mean, I personally enjoy irony - I think all of us here do.

But for that very reason I fear that might make him less, not more, palatable on the national stage.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

Likely. I don't know how well irony plays outside of Berlin, I live in a bubble here relative to the larger country. A highly enjoyable bubble.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:38:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The economist was pushing (none / 0)

for a FDP/CDU victory. Tells us all we need to know. Barf.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 1)

Notice that they totally ignore that die Linke is no longer an east only party. I'm suspicious of exit polls, particularly if there's postal voting. Any good campaign organization on the left is going to push their people to vote by post if at all possible. That way you get out the disabled and elderly, who tend to be supportive of things like pensions and government aid. Plus I wonder if there will be a large group of Hartz IV people who show up in the postal vote.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:39:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (4.00 / 2)

GOTV is not only not a tradition, but sometimes illegal in Europe.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 1)

This I know. But there is a difference between giving someone a ride to the polling station, and encouraging them to vote by post. Regardless, I think that there is likely a demographic bias to postal voting.

Does Germany have a "day of reflection", a day in which no campaigning takes places immediately prior to the election day?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 12:46:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (4.00 / 2)

There used to be, but it is eroded now.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 01:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 0)

Everyone was on Stefan Raab's show yesterday (as four years ago). Well, everyone except Merkel and Steinmeier.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 02:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (4.00 / 2)

I didn't see that? Did Raab make them slide down the bannister in a wok or crack off-color jokes about their sex lives?

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 03:22:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 0)

You can read the review here.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 03:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 0)

The elderly is the only group in France where Sarko had a clear majority...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 04:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (4.00 / 2)

Well, the "Financial Times Deutschland" would have liked a CDU-Green coalition. :)

They were very skeptical of the FDP. Promising tax cuts and a balanced budget given the budget reality sounded stupid to them. Not to mention that the FDP was the only party not reflecting on the financial crisis.

That will probably mean that the "FTD" isn´t a "serious" (economics) newspaper any longer, right?
At least for the Economist or the WSJ?

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 04:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (4.00 / 2)

The FTD is definitely different from it's mother the FT, too. Economic liberal, but more modern and broad-sighted.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 04:47:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The economist was pushing (none / 1)

Right.
I do remember some editorials and opinion pieces there which quite openly ridiculed its "mother", the FT.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 04:54:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit polls (4.00 / 2)

The overhang seat debate is alive! In Schleswig-Holstein.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 27th, 2009 at 02:10:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

German Elections Open Thread | 173 comments (173 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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