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Because that was the focus of Jerome's diary.

Sigh. Jérôme's focus was US growth, not the comparison of US and other growth, and even less an analysis of falling behind...

That's good. Though it is more local, with the obstacles typically being local regulations.

Instead of arguing about how great we are, we have to do better.

You were arguing that we are worse than others -- if you wanted to speak about doing better compared to ourselves, you derailed your own argument there.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 09:46:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

DoDo:

You were arguing that we are worse than others -- if you wanted to speak about doing better compared to ourselves, you derailed your own argument there.

Is it not possible to note both that - as Jerome's figures revealed - the EU installed less new capacity than the US last year, and that the EU should try to do better? I am now left wondering what all this extreme sensitivity and slightly insulting responses to asking a simple question means.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 10:02:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is it not possible to note both that - as Jerome's figures revealed - the EU installed less new capacity than the US last year, and that the EU should try to do better?

That would be two independent statements -- but didn't you conclude one from the other? (If not, what was the point of noting that the EU may have installed less?) Did our replies not challenge the rationale for comparison, in multiple ways (resource to exploit, level of current exploitation, long-term trends)? It read like an argument about US and EU GDP growth.

I am now left wondering what all this extreme sensitivity and slightly insulting responses to asking a simple question means.

Well -- I can't speak for others whether they actually felt sensitivity (extreme or not) or intended to hurl insults (slight or not), but I myself sighed because I didn't think your re-framed version meant the same as what you yourself and Jérôme said earlier.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 10:18:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

DoDo:

Did our replies not challenge the rationale for comparison, in multiple ways

Perhaps you missed the following in the original question:

Frank Schnittger:

I appreciate that onshore is quicker, cheaper and easier to deliver, and the US has a huge advantage in onshore wind resources. But they also have a crap grid and poor corporate infrastructure for enhancing it. So who is going to hit capacity constraints for integrating wind power sooner? Where are the EU and US on developing smart grids and efficient means of moving gigawatts of power from wind resource rich regions to wind poor but high demand regions?

The reality is that both continents face differing challenges of geography, infrastructure, finance and politics, and I was trying to find out more about how well both were doing in addressing them. I don't think that is a silly question that only neo-libs would ask, and I don't know what your sighing added to the conversation. Wind energy is hardly my specialist subject but I had been planning to do a diary on the Irish Electricity Supply Board's plans in sustainable and intermittent power sources in the area and wanted to get a handle on the bigger picture.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 10:57:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Perhaps you missed the following in the original question:

I shall reply to it more specifically below, but it (1) doesn't justify the comment's title, (2) doesn't change the validity of our challenges of the rationale for comparison.

But they also have a crap grid and poor corporate infrastructure for enhancing it. So who is going to hit capacity constraints for integrating wind power sooner?

As a serious problem, that's in the future, on both continents. As an excuse raised by regulators stopping wind in certain regions, that's the recent past: see the crash of the market a few years ago in Hungary and Austria, and that's Europe. Meanwhile, zoning laws and the scramble for the best on-shore wind sites are real constraints on rapid on-shore expansion at the present, in Europe.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 03:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Besides, though Crazy Horse will argue that there is still plenty of room for expansion on-shore, methinks the bulk of that is in certain problematic countries (UK, France), off-shore is rolling off now, and the focus should now be on photovoltaic, and more pilot projects for others (like concentrated solar or hot-dry-rock geothermal, the second also for distance heating).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 09:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

because your whole premise is based on saying that only 6GW will have been built in Europe last year, a number you pulled out of incomplete and voluntarily approximative data on the proportion of offshore in the total, and you then jumped right into a "Europe is declining theme" which I find exasperating, and not just from the WSJ.

I was disappointed to see the EU lose much of its political leadership position on the issue at Copenhagen.

As far as I can tell, the EU lost the leadership of nothing: China, the US and others all happily agreed between themsleves to ignore the problem and do nothing. That's not leadership, that's denial.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 11:48:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No, my whole premise was that I could ask a civil question based on approximate data you had provided and get a civil reply. Noting that Europe installed less new capacity than the US may not be on message for an EU PR flunkey but that is not my role. Neither do I parrot a WSJ "Europe is declining" meme and I would thank you for not seeking to brand me with that ideology.

As for Copenhagen, you must be one of the few people that doesn't think that it represented a setback for attempts to mitigate climate change and the EU's attempt to lead that process forward.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 01:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Neither do I parrot a WSJ "Europe is declining" meme

You kicked off this whole meandering subthread with

EU being left behind again?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 03:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think it was the "again" that rubbed people the wrong way, because it implies a trend of being overtaken by other powers. Such a trend does not seem to be in evidence.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 03:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The again was actually a reference to the Copenhagen debacle where the EU had been in a leadership position but was left out of the talks which led to what little agreement was eventually reached.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 06:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There was nothing in the initial comment to indicate that this was a Copenhagen reference, so you have to acknowledge at least that you left yourself open to misinterpretation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 28th, 2010 at 07:07:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So no one is allowed to ask the question whether it is possible that the EU is falling behind in some aspect or other without being accused of being a silly WSJ neo-lib? A simple factual reply - such as that provided by CH - would have sufficed.

Indeed I was glad to read his comments that the 2009 rate of installation in the EU need not be a cause for concern - although I am concerned that progress in Ireland seems to have slowed and the senior manager from the ESB I spoke to seemed to have little time for wind power as a priority despite the fact that the ESB's own strategic plan calls for a €22 Billion investment in renewable energy and a commitment to generate one third of all power from renewables by 2020.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 07:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So no one is allowed to ask the question whether it is possible that the EU is falling behind in some aspect

See discussion of "again" elsewhere. (And your above reply could have reflected that, coming after your reply to JakeS.)

A simple factual reply - such as that provided by CH - would have sufficed.

Your thread-starter wasn't or at least couldn't be read obviously as a simple factual question, you have to see that.

I am concerned that progress in Ireland seems to have slowed

I would more characterise the situation there as "still hasn't taken off". 2008 installations were 208 MW, this year's seem to be 250 MW (Or maybe even 500 MW -- it's confusing because the Irish Wind Energy Association's statistics page is a mess, and they seem to insist on including Northern Ireland in Ireland.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 28th, 2010 at 07:17:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well, (none / 1)

don't put "Europe left behind again" as your title if you have such innocuous intentions.

As for Copenhagen, you must be one of the few people that doesn't think that it represented a setback for attempts to mitigate climate change and the EU's attempt to lead that process forward.

Where did I say that it was not a setback for attempts to mitigate climate change? All I said is that it is easy to "lead" to a deal if the deal is to do nothing. That the EU was not involved in such deal is not a valid criticism of its leadership. Its leadership is demonstrated by the fact that it is the only one to have binding targets on itself - and it has the credibility of having met the Kyoto targets it imposed on itself in the 90s. Whether these targets are enough is another issue, but at least the EU has acted, both in setting goals and, so far, in fulfilling them.

The only way to pull China in will be through an all out trade war, and I expect we'll get there eventually, if no deal happens.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 03:38:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well, (none / 0)

We would have to purge a number of Quisling governments first.

Starting with the COP15 hosts...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 27th, 2010 at 10:42:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? (4.00 / 4)

Short answer is no, the EU is not being left behind.

First, on the manufacturing side, nearly half of the installations were produced in Europe. In Q4 alone, US manufacturing accounted for 1848.5 MWs, while EU accounted for 1652.9 MWs in the US. (Siemens, Vestas, REpower, Acciona, others; and that's just Q4.)

Second, some of the largest developers in the US are already owned by EU utilities.

Both continents are moving aggressively toward grid enhancement.

I've got more, but there's a webinar on the results right now.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 12:40:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? (none / 0)

Thanks.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 01:23:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? (4.00 / 5)

Back of envelope numbers (very rough) based on AWEA preliminary data, for capacity additions in the US 2009:

The EU supplied somewhere between 42-45% of the total installed.

Vestas (DK) 16%
Siemens (DK/D) 13%
Gamesa (SP) 7%
REpower (D) 4%
Acciona (SP) 2%
Nordex (D) <1% (new to market)
Mitsubishi (J) 8%
Suzlon (I) 6%
Clipper (US) 3%
GE (US/D) 41%

Some portion of US manufactured turbines use European components, as do those from Asia. Towers are largely produced domestically for all turbines. Rotor blades are often from European companies with facilities in the US, though some are shipped.

The first Chinese manufactured turbines have already been installed in the US, with the first significant order already in place for 2010 delivery.

US jobs in the industry remained steady at an estimated 85,000. Increased were construction and O&M, decreases were in manufacturing.

Projecting into 2010, market signals remain mixed, with some growth and CAPEX decisions awaiting the results from a disfunctional Congress.

We're still awaiting 2009 EU stats, and while one can safely say the EU numbers won't be aggressive, they won't be lagging too much either. The EU is in a transition phase, hurt by the lack of push to further develop onshore but helped by the beginnings of the repowering sector, where older, smaller turbines are reaching the end of their economic life, and will be replaced.

Anecdote from the wind geek dinner: wry smiles as we remarked on the turbines (installed years ago) spinning at the edge of the airport, while politicians in the UK are still looking for solutions to the "radar problem." (censored)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 02:51:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? Not (4.00 / 3)

Perhaps as interesting is that over one-third of all 2009 US projects were developed by European-owned companies.

Iberdrola (SP) 1241.1 MWs
E.on Renewables (D) 993.5
Horizon (EdP) (P) 769.4
EnXco (EdF) (FR) 355

If one counts BP as being European, with some 725 MWs, the total is over 40% of projects. Note also that the US branches of European banks traditionally make up a significant portion of the lenders.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 04:19:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? Not (none / 1)

If one counts BP as being European

What do you mean if?

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 04:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EU being left behind again? Not (none / 1)

Oh, did i forget to include the smiley for zee leetle yoke? And pretty strong showing from the Iberian peninsula, na?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 04:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And pretty strong showing from the Iberian peninsula, na?

So what, I'm not a nationalist.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 04:34:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But aren't you a Europhile and supporter of progressive industries in Europe??

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 05:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What do you mean if?

Well, given the behaviour of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, I think many of us would prefer to not count BP as "European."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jan 26th, 2010 at 08:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]