The hard news is that there is no "Plan B." The future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think. This was the primary conclusion that I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington, DC in October, 2010.

The impact of Peak Oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention - but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.

ASPO conferences tend to start early, end late, and be packed with more data and information than should be consumed in one sitting. Despite all this, I was riveted to my seat. This year's usual constellation of excellent region-by-region analyses confirmed what past participants already knew: Peak Conventional Oil arrived a few years ago, and new fields, enhanced recovery techniques, and unconventional oil plays are barely going to keep up with demand over the next few years.

But there were two reports that really stood out for me. The first was given by Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice, who presented the findings of the 2010 Joint Operating Environment (a forward-looking document examining the trends, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders in the US military), which spends 76 pages summarizing the key trends and threats of the world. "Energy" occupies six of those pages, and Peak Oil dominates the discussion. Among the conclusions (on page 29), we find this hidden gem, which uses numbers and timing that are eerily similar to those that I put forth in my April 2009 report, Oil - The Coming Supply Crunch:

   By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

These projections are in line with what Luis De Sousa presented in his recent diary: The oil 'peak' has been reached. But this largely falls outside of the limits of discussion in the "mainstream media", servants of the existing order that they are. The most we can expect is an occasional "special report" on the subject.  

Chris notes that the existing paradigm for rationing scarce resources is by price and that that might not be the best way in the face of massive impending shortages. He cites agriculture as a prime example. He also notes that while the military and many businesses can see the problem coming and are doing what they can to prepare, on the political front nothing is being done in most countries because the short term costs are great and impact powerful economic incumbents whereas the benefits are long term and will only become obvious after the crisis hits.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."