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I don't know how much of Ireland debt matures in the next 12 months, but it may be more than the balance of trade surplus. Also I don't know how directly a balance of trade surplus translates into Government cash flow to pay off maturing debt.  

So unless you are advocating defaulting on currently maturing Government debt - much of which probably predates the banking crisis and was thus lent in good faith to a Government with a c. 25% debt/GDP ratio - this is debt which should be repaid.

The people who lent to Ireland in the last 10 years are propably quite different to those who bought bank bonds, and so you would be making one set of (arguably responsible low risk creditors) responsible for the sins of those who invested in the dodgy banks.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 02:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know how much of Ireland debt matures in the next 12 months, but it may be more than the balance of trade surplus. Also I don't know how directly a balance of trade surplus translates into Government cash flow to pay off maturing debt.

Doesn't really matter, as long as the Irish government is able to tell the largest single creditor to fuck off. Its creditors are unlikely to form a coherent block if it starts taking them down one by one.

So unless you are advocating defaulting on currently maturing Government debt - much of which probably predates the banking crisis and was thus lent in good faith to a Government with a c. 25% debt/GDP ratio - this is debt which should be repaid.

And it will be... if they keep rolling it over until the bad bank debt has been resolved. The alternative is to simply default on all Irish sovereign debt and set up a shadow central bank to fund the deficit. That would be far worse for these creditors.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 02:58:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
And it will be... if they keep rolling it over until the bad bank debt has been resolved. The alternative is to simply default on all Irish sovereign debt and set up a shadow central bank to fund the deficit. That would be far worse for these creditors.

So how is this different from the ECB/IMF bail-out fund - which enables Ireland to access capital at cheaper rates until such time as it can fund its own borrowing on sovereign debt markets again?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 03:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fewer sticky strings.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 03:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We don't yet know what the strings will be. So far the Irish Government has been making all the running in tying itself up in knots all by itself with no need for help from anyone else - as in the 15 Billion cuts in public expenditure programme it is about to announce and which pre-dates ECB/IMF involvement (if not consultation).  

The IMF may turn out to be a convenient bogeyman to frighten the public sector unions, but the sense I have is that the Irish Govt. has been leading the charge to rein in public expenditure, and particularly public administration costs as well as the value of income transfer and resource entitlement programmes.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 04:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jake

as long as the Irish government is able to tell the largest single creditor to fuck off. Its creditors are unlikely to form a coherent block if it starts taking them down one by one.

i can't evaluate your strategic path, but this tactical path seems highly hypothetical, if not unworkable.

Doesn't this all come back to which interest group is best recognized by the ECB/Irish sklaven, and there's no voice for what might be termed a sensible course of action?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anas Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 03:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this all come back to which interest group is best recognized by the ECB/Irish sklaven, and there's no voice for what might be termed a sensible course of action?

The ECB is largely irrelevant to the Irish situation - if Ireland wants to implement a solution that would work, then the ECB does not have enough divisions to stop it from doing so.

It is true that the Irish political class isn't going to do this, but that does not mean that it cannot be done.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 04:06:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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