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What strikes me as being more likely is something more closely resembling the end of the Weimar Republic. President Teabag wins power and accelerates the dismantling of the basic elements of our democracy, empowering and extending the security state while at the same time empowering their corporate masters. If it's done via the ballot box (in contrast to what happened in Germany in 1933) then it wouldn't be easy to stop.
In the scenario I described above, there'd be some sort of political crisis that makes it clear to the West Coast (for example) that they've lost Congress for good and lost the ability to ever turn federal policy around. The Republican efforts to undermine the 14th Amendment's guarantee of birthright citizenship and other attacks on democratic rights such as Arizona's SB 1070 are the only ways the GOP can cling to power beyond 2020, so it's quite possible that states like California will be increasingly shut out from exercising influence over the federal government.
Once a crisis appears, and once Congress fails to act - or acts against California's values - then you'd have a moment where CA could force a redefinition of the relationship to the US. Depending on the context, this is where the role of the military becomes very important.
Another factor is the slow but steady collapse of American civilization - one reason I feel confident that California and other states will eventually go its own way is that the combination of peak oil and right-wing politics will make it increasingly difficult to actually sustain the federal government, and will lead to more localization of responsibilities and roles, fueling the drift toward some kind of either dissolution or looser federation.
And the world will live as one
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