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You may well be right. On the other hand, and again using CA as an example, LA is going to die without fresh water from the Colorado River Basin. So you need at least AZ to be in on the game, unless you plan on only seceding with the Northern half of the state. And the landlocked states are going to be massively fucked if they get cut off from global commerce, so they will have to remain on at least speaking terms with the states that control the arterial railroads and/or navigable rivers between them and the nearest blue water port.

- Jake



Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 05:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a complicating factor, but not an insurmountable obstacle. The US and Canada have a series of water treaties governing the Columbia River watershed that work well.

In fact, the 1922 Colorado River Compact ought to be renegotiated anyway. It allows an unsustainable taking of water from the river, and the allocations were drawn up during a particularly wet period, not taking into account the boom-and-bust nature of rainfall in the rivershed.

CA also imports some of its electricity, including from the Palo Verde Nuclear Station west of Phoenix. So that could require renegotiation.  But those aren't insurmountable barriers, and CA does have a lot of its own infrastructure. Besides, the state needs to reduce its per capita water and energy consumption anyway.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 06:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its also open to question what are the conditions that would make Pacific Northwest residents of Northern California willing to go which Pacific Northwest residents of Oregon and Washington would be immune to.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 06:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
California, Oregon, and Washington would likely work together on some plan for greater state autonomy, redefinition of the relationship with the federal government, or outright dissolution of the union. In the latter case I could envision an independent California having trade and resource agreements with a nation-state that is a federation of Oregon and Washington (and maybe even BC).

Again, I suspect that's all some years away, though the unfolding economic/political crisis could accelerate the timeline. In any case, it seems fair to expect that the USA as we know it is going to see significant changes in how it is governed.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 08:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course these things take time ... but the US has never gone through a 75 year period without a major change in the order of things, so sometime in the next twenty years we are probably due. Whether we ride it out successfully or not is in the right people seeing which is the right side of the fight and then winning it.

A hollow shell center, as in the ancien regime of the DRC when it was the rotting nation-state of Zaire, is one possible outcome of failing to pick the right fight or to win it, but then the DRC is more akin to the US between the mountains (I guess that would make New Orleans equal to Kinshasa) than to the whole US. In the case of a hollow shell center, I'd expect the center would fail to hold.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 21st, 2010 at 10:39:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
the landlocked states are going to be massively fucked if they get cut off from global commerce, so they will have to remain on at least speaking terms with the states that control the arterial railroads and/or navigable rivers between them and the nearest blue water port
There was an observation made in (I think) 2004 that the red/blue divide, when done at the county level revealed that pretty much "blue" America was coterminous with being on water (the sea and the big rivers, especially the Mississippi was one line of blue in a plain of red). So, do the Democrats have the Republicans over a barrel (of water)?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 04:56:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting insight.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 04:59:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There ain't no more water in the Colorado.  It's all divided up. And - trust me on this one! - nobody is going to give-up one H2O molecule to LA.

LA has the Pacific Ocean literally on its doorstep.  The technology to make it potable exists.  It's expensive to buy and to run.  They don't want to have to raise the taxes so they can spend the money.  

Tough.  Life's a bitch and then you die.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 03:38:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why worry?  Aren't you guys supposed to start pumping it in from the Great Lakes anyway?

/runs to bomb shelter

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 05:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that silly thing back on again?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 06:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 22nd, 2010 at 08:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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