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Is that criminal, or what? Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
(Don't you love banker talk? Haircut? While profits continue to privatized, and losses underwritten by the worker bees?) "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
As is spreading rumours through the FT without sources twice in less than six months.
The ECB should be burned down using paper from the FT.de to stoke the fire.
After investigating the German Government, the ECB and the FT.de for market manipulation, that is. Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
If the result is that the invaders own your infrastructure, dominate your politics and enslave your population, how is that different from a conventional war?
"The bondholders" have declared independence from the rest of the world. They are now a separate sovereign country, without all of that tedious stuff about constitutions and parliaments and voting.
But they can - and will - beat up the population and government of any other country that tries to get in their way.
The ECB is full of quislings who already work for them.
This may seem metaphorical. But when you have a global player acting like a sovereign in everything but name, it may not be a good idea to assume that they're thinking small-time.
Melanchthon:
Portugal: the next failed eurozone state - eurointelligencePortugal is the next example of a country to demonstrate that austerity in the middle of a financial crisis is a sure recipe for disaster.
Portugal is the next example of a country to demonstrate that austerity in the middle of a financial crisis is a sure recipe for disaster.
what is this really about?
Destroying the euro. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
We've talked endlessly about how silly this whole thing is from an economic and political economic POV. Taking those conclusions seriously one has to ask, "Who, and Why, is this going on?"
In my opinion, the answer is:
The euro was challenging and winning the battle against US dollar financial hegemony.
Have to go back and compile a time line. Off the top of my head the kicker was when Iran started accepting euros for oil quickly followed by "Euro Bad" headlines and then the Greece "crisis."
IF this is correct, and I've by no means proved anything, the major global financial institutions, possibly with support by various agencies and individuals in the US government, possibly orchestrated by the US government, have declared economic war on the EU with allies in the EU, notably the UK, but also various other, unknown to me, actors and entities within the EU as well as national governments comprising the EU.
I submit this hypothesis fits the data fairly well. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
:-) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
From Day One I've been trying to tell the EU ET'ers the euro was a threat to the US dollar and to those who rely on the US dollar to maintain their global domination.
With the US economy, and dollar, catching fire the euro - as a potential, now actual, alternative - can no longer be tolerated. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Migeru:
Europe's politicians and economic policymakers have either been schooled in neoclassical economics and the efficient market hypothesis, or have been raised in market-worshipping conventional wisdom. They are cognitively incapable of understanding what's going on. Also, Germany has been making xenophobic noises about the peripheral Euro countries since the 1990s. Now this crisis can be used by them to validate their claims back then that the Euro should not have incorporated the Mediterranean countries.
Also, Germany has been making xenophobic noises about the peripheral Euro countries since the 1990s. Now this crisis can be used by them to validate their claims back then that the Euro should not have incorporated the Mediterranean countries.
The euro was a concession extracted by France from Germany in return for agreement on Reunification. There may well be those, not a hundred kilometres from Frankfurt, who have never really accepted it (or have never accepted the definition of the club membership) and now see an opportunity to force undesirable members either to spend years washing the dishes and sweeping the clubhouse floor, or leave.
There's also the defence of bondholding financial interests to be considered: there are two interesting posts by Golem XIV (h/t kukute) here and here.
I think it's possible they are clueless because they're blindly defending interests that have long been an integral part of their world-view and that they cannot see beyond.
What about making it an ET project? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
From Day One I've been trying to tell the EU ET'ers the euro was a threat to the US dollar
I know.
(swoons)
(I'm fairly sure there's a post in the archives from way, way back about how the US and EU are natural enemies, and protracted peace is unlikely. But I can't be bothered to find it at the moment.)
Is the current economic governance of the EU treasonous or merely criminal stupidity?
If it's sociopathic "grab everything while the grabbing is possible" it's the former.
If the current policies reflect the central wankers adherence to Neo-Capitalist Economics it's the latter. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
But we keep electing criminally stupid people. Just look at the latest German, British and Dutch elections. Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
IHMO, any attempt to shore-up the current dollar-dependent financial system is doomed. The US (and it's little puppy-dog Air Base One) is, as we say, fucked. Been over the reasoning fifty million times and see little point in doing it again.
China has already started backing away from the mess.
Russia, as much as I know about it, seems to be somewhat protected.
The question is if the EU, minus the UK, is going to follow their example or follow the US/UK into the mire. The euro is IMO the key. With it the EU (minus UK) states can protect themselves. Without it, they open themselves up to plundering. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
:-)
I don't see how the EU can turn this around with the ECB's current Decision Makers and adherents, willing or otherwise, to Neo-Liberal political economics as heads of governments. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
As for her advisors and policy implementers, well - the system works by blokes hiring "blokes and blokettes like us." The fact NCE is a hilariously inept analysis doesn't enter into it. NCE is the economic theory being used to guide policy and anyone outside the NCE consensus isn't allowed to "be a bloke." How much of that is purely structural and how much malicious? I don't know. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
It's a US conspiracy that "tricked" Deutsche Bank, Hypo, Northern Rock, into taking positions in the US MBS markets.
It's a US conspiracy, the "bad" US capitalism, the "bad" US financiers that tricked the "good" EU capitalism, the "good" EU financiers into lending long and borrowing short.
This has nothing to do with dollar vs. euro, US financial hegemony or any of that.
Tell you what it is about-- and that is who pays for the mess the good and bad capitalists have made of all of society. And they don't want to pay anything of course. Consequently, what the EU, and the US, have done is essentially turn their entire economy into a "bad bank."
Nobody wants a haircut when Sweeney Todd is the barber.
My problem is that I refuse to believe the European economic establishment is so clueless as they appear. As to what's going on in Frankfurt, there is a segment of the German establishment that has never liked the Euro since it became clear it wouldn't be limited to Germanic-speaking people plus France. Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
Was halten Sie von einer "Kern-Euro-Zone" ohne die PIGS-Staaten? | FTD.de (What do you think about a "core Euro zone without the PIGS States?)
Possible answers:
The budget deficit in Portugal was reduced from 9.4% in 2009 to 7.3% in October of 2010 due to increased income on the back of a small GDP recovery. Up to the end of this year it should reduce further, close to 7.0%. But state expenditures are still uncontrolled and the 2011 budget should tackle that with salary cuts to public workers up to 10% and by scrapping a number of public institutes. The deficit target for 2011 is 4.3%, which in light of the recent evolution and with a 2% hike of VAT should be accomplished. The problem is the expectable recessive effect of such a budget, which has an unforeseeable impact on state income.
So, effectively, the 7% yields being asked on 10 year Portuguese bonds are much more a speculative move against Europe than the state itself. For sure, a public debt of 90% of GDP and a 1/10 of the budget to pay interests on it isn't a good place to be, but the imminent default being called by the so called "markets" is a bit further down the debt road (e.g. compare Portugal to the US).
From this perspective I don't see it as a terrible idea to tap the ESF if these yields go on into 2011. The foolishness is thinking that somehow that shall prevent the "markets" from going after Spain, which obviously they will.
As I wrote last March this could all have been avoided if an European Treasury had been set before this storm. But as long has as the EPP is at the helm that's not going to happen, at least before some blood is spilt. luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
7% interest rates?!?
Are you INSANE?
You're letting your countries be plundered. You're giving them exactly what they need to continue to dominate.
When will you stupid idiots STOP FEEDING THE BEAST?
</rant> She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Those same people who thought is was a nifty idea to lend money for mortgages to people having no hope of paying it back, didn't bother to file the necessary paperwork, turning the loans into CDOs, then slicing and dicing the CDOs eleventy million ways from Sunday, and are now discovering most of those mortgages underlying tens of trillions of dollars of CDOs aren't legal.
THOSE people? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Clearly, The Market knows better than the central bank what a bond is worth.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Hence my reasoning, if these yields last into 2011, when the Treasury shall have to issue more bonds, then the ESF (or EFSF) starts making a whole lot of sense with the 5% figure. Besides that, the austerity is already here and the budget deficit is already closing down.
A default would only make sense to avoid the austerity package; but in such case the onus would be on other institutions and citizens inside the Euro-zone (about 80% of the Portuguese debt is owned by the French and the Germans).
Beyond all this, a reduction in government spending could be a good thing if directed at shaving all the fat from a public administration stained by corruption. But that's a different story... luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
A purchases sovereign bonds at par giving 4%.
The price drops so the bonds are now paying 7%.
Company A OTC sells these bonds to Company B and takes a loss.
Company B is now getting 7% return off the investment.
So what have I done?
I've transfered the bonds from one corporate entity to another, taken a small loss minus the tax benefits, and am now getting 3% more, per year, for my money plus the difference between the discounted and par value of the bond.
A nice little profit for, effectively, doing nothing. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
A nice little profit for, effectively, doing nothing.
Welcome to Planet Rentier "The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
Now, if you've pawned off the equity in company A to some unsuspecting sucker, on the other hand...
The following numbers aren't accurate but they are in the ballpark and demonstrate the point.
Look at it this way, instead of getting $1.5 million/year (boring) on your small amount of money, say $50 million, you can get $3.5 million. If you're in the club you can now go to your friendly Central Banker and borrow $46 million on which you pay 2% interest based on the $50 million of sovereign 'assets' you're holding on your Balance Sheet. (If you're not in the club you have to pay more, but the procedure is the same.) Admittedly you lower the total net return by $920,000 to $2.58 million but note you are still getting $1.1 million more than the 'original' investment by Company A. Plus you are, effectively, getting that return on only $4 million ... manufacturing a 60% interest rate. (If you had to pay a higher interest rate this return is knocked down, but you're still getting a whopping return.)
And now Company B has $96 million on it's Balance Sheet (assets and cash.)
Company B sells OTC $75 million of bonds at 5% ($3.75 million/year interest) backed by the $96 million in "assets" it has on its Balance Sheet to Company A takes $50,000,000 of the proceeds and buys (boring) sovereign bonds at 3% getting the $1.17 million needed for the interest payment and a bit more.
voila!
Company B now has $71 million cash free and clear, a "profit," off of the original stake of $50 million.
BONUSES ALL AROUND!
"Huh?" I hear you say. "How can that be?"
The trick is done by being able to borrow at a low interest rate, buy at a higher interest rate, and iterate (leverage.) Granted you have to have the $100 million needed to "make the wheels go 'round" but everybody, who is anybody has $100 mil to play around with! Right?
The other part of the trick is ignoring the unpleasant fact somebody, somewhere, actually has to go out and do something to get the money to meet the interest payments. Since this whole thing is "fueled" by sovereign debt "somebody" is the taxpaying citizens and inhabitants of the country. When the sovereign debt is not used to generate an Internal Rate of Return higher than the interest rate there is a net flow of wealth, eventually, FROM the country TO the bond holders. Doing things like funding a Real Estate Boom (Iceland, Ireland) or buying tanks (Greece) or bombing brown people (US) doesn't hack it. So to get the money "austerity" programs must be instituted to pay the interest on the money the taxpayers and citizens of the country so foolishly borrowed.
She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
If you own both Company A and B outright, the proper way to look at it is to look at the consolidated balance sheet. And on the consolidated balance sheet, buying and selling between A and B doesn't matter, except possibly for calculations of tax liability (hence my comment that this is a tax shelter, because A incurs an accounting loss when it sells the bonds to B).
I used $50 million, rather than $42.692 million (or whatever it is) just to keep things simple.
You're right the proper way is to construct a consolidated Balance Sheet. But I don't have to, and being a sleaze ball don't want to, since, legally, Company A and Company B are independent economic entities and all transactions take place, legally, at arms-length.
Further by keeping Company A a separate legal entity I can go whining to the financial press about having to take a loss on my sovereign debt holdings and how I'm going to go bankrupt & yadda-yadda-yadda if the national government doesn't bail me out.
And be very, very, quiet about Company B. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
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