Oil plateaus | 159 comments (159 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 7)

I like how the not found oil exactly replaces the oil we know will decline. Almost like it was fixed so :)

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:01:15 AM EST

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 4)

They should tell us what part is "to be developed" and what part is "to be found". The distinction is serious enough that conflating the two categories is really not justified, especially if the aggregate happens to be a "fudge factor to keep conventional crude oil production constant".

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 09:40:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 4)

Well, they say Saudi Arabia and Iraq will supply the major increase in crude oil production - with SA at >5 mb/d between 2009 and 2035... and Iraq rising to 4.5 mb/d. (What was that war about again?)

Also coming to a pump near you: some wonderful Caspian (Kazakh) crude action.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:49:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 2)

Saudi Arabian production increasing? What are these guys smoking?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:14:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

Same old light crude BS.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 02:53:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

according to this graph, in 2015, around 10 mb/d (or more) will have to come from "to be developed" or "to be found". But, as far as I know, there is no way an oil field not known today could be in full production within 5 years. That means these 10 mb/d will have to come from oil fields which are already known and have "to be developed". How realistic is that?

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 2)

From the executive summary:

Iraq accounts for a large share of the increase in OPEC output, commensurate with its large resource base, its crude oil output catching up with Iran's by around 2015 and its total output reaching 7 mb/d by 2035.

I'll let you judge how realistic this is.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 5)

Even if Iraq's capacity reached that level, why on earth would they pump oil in sufficient quantity to depress the price?

Producers have every interest in restricting supply at the level necessary to maximise their resource rent, and moreover, while dollars yield zero per cent, they have no reason to exchange valuable oil in the ground for dollars other than for necessary expenditure.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 01:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

Would 50,000 US troops have anything to do with the answer?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 05:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

Ummhhh ... well, no, it wouldn't. The troops are going to help defend the oil fields just as fiercely if the price is going up as if the price is stable.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 11:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

But the response was to the question of the rate at which the Iraqi government might choose to pump, or be able to pump the oil and, therefore, the price which they would receive for it, as well as to whom they might sell the oil. Call me a cynic, but I suspect that the continued presence of the US troops has something to do with those questions as well.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 09:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 1)

I have no doubt that there are plenty of interests who would like the presence of US troops to influence the decision of how fast to pump, but there doesn't seem to be much of a credible threat that the US could make regarding any negative consequences to the Iraqi government if they do not pump as fast as the US would like.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 03:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (none / 0)

But who in the US Government will admit that? Surely no one who wants to be Serious^TT, at least not for several more years.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When has the government been short ... (none / 1)

... of ability and willingness to lie to the American public in the service of oil industry interests?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 05:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

nope (4.00 / 5)

US troops actually slow investment, because as long as they are there there will be uncertainty as to the legitimacy of the legal framework for oil investments, and oil companies are unlikely to invest real money unless they are reasonably sure that the legal framework can last a couple dozen years - and that won't happen prior to the departure of the US troops as no government under them is legitimate.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 06:41:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: nope (none / 1)

Which is another reason the "to be developed" portion of the graph is fantasy. Even if the US accelerates its draw-down of overseas troops, Iraq will be towards the end UNLESS the oil if flowing at an increasing rate and the Iraqis seem happy -- failing a serious collapse of US power or the even more remote possibility of a significant change in US politics. My guess is that we will leave Iraq only when the actual reserves, along with production, are seriously in decline or the US can no longer manage to pay for the occupation.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 11th, 2010 at 10:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 7)

A swedish kind of death:

Almost like it was fixed so

Intelligent Design is proved true!

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:09:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oil plateaus (4.00 / 3)

Only if the intelligent designer intended population to remain constant, so that demand didn't go up...

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 10:15:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They should do the same for demand forecast (4.00 / 7)

However...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

wel (none / 0)

this is overall demand. They are saying that there will be plenty of natgas coming online, and even a bit of renewables.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:10:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wel (4.00 / 2)

So let's have this one:

Hydro included, the ROW is going to be doing a lot of renewables.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

True, but let's see: (4.00 / 4)

Oil demand is still growing:

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 11:59:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They should do the same for demand forecast (4.00 / 8)

That too is overly optimistic, since we are now seeing in the US a coordinated effort on the right to resist demand destruction and to instead shackle all of us even more tightly to our vehicles. This proposal in Washington State is particularly insane, but also not surprising, since we are now in the opening stages of a war between those determined to preserve the forms and values of 20th century life against the effort to build a sustainable, stable 21st century prosperity.

Demand destruction will still happen, but it will take the form of more and more people being priced out of the ability to drive and given no alternatives, as we see a hardening of a two-tier society here in the US.

And the world will live as one

by Montereyan (robert at calitics dot com) on Tue Nov 9th, 2010 at 04:22:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They should do the same for demand forecast (none / 1)

So can we combine the two graphs? see if there's an energy gap looming or if production has just adjusted to fit perceived demand?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 10th, 2010 at 08:47:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oil plateaus | 159 comments (159 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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