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Now we have the 2007-present crisis to play with, too...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 04:27:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And that is one advantage of running exercises: Even if your macro models are garbage, and your economics profession is empirically bankrupt, you can still push for an upgrade of the exercise scenarios whenever an economy or two blows up in a sufficiently spectacular fashion somewhere in the world. "Nobody could have predicted that this would happen (to white people)" is a weaksauce excuse when you're drilling four "unthinkable" scenarios every year.

It also provides a more graceful out for the people who didn't see the crash coming. Rather than having to discard their entire academic career because it's garbage, they can say "well, I sure didn't see that coming, but let's update out scenarios to make sure we'll be ready to deal with it next time." While not as viscerally satisfying as purging the morons, it would go a long way towards improving the financial regulator's combat readiness.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 10:58:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except, when they conducted the banking stress tests earlier this year they still managed to not stress too much in directions that they knew were problematic...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 11:20:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah yes, but that would only undermine CONFIDENCE, and whatever else, we mustn't stress the investors...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 11:27:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I would like to see Zapatero employ on the financial sector the tactics he deployed against the air traffic controllers today...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 02:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, yeah, that's why you need to drill people ahead of time. So they don't make that sort of newbie mistakes next time.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 12:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In either the case of the US or European Stress Tests, calling the methodology employed "a rookie mistake" is being generous in your assumptions about the intent and probably overly harsh in your assumptions about their competence. I see little evidence that, in either case, the intent was to test a reasonable worst case situation, but rather to insure that all but the most laughable cases got a pass, and there was a struggle about even the laughable cases, such as Hypo bank.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 12:53:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hey econo-wonkers, here's a dumb question from the bleachers:

what is the equivalent of Wall St. in the EU?

are there parallels with the ECB?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Dec 7th, 2010 at 05:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"The City" - now being challenged by Frankfurt

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 7th, 2010 at 06:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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