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And that is one advantage of running exercises: Even if your macro models are garbage, and your economics profession is empirically bankrupt, you can still push for an upgrade of the exercise scenarios whenever an economy or two blows up in a sufficiently spectacular fashion somewhere in the world. "Nobody could have predicted that this would happen (to white people)" is a weaksauce excuse when you're drilling four "unthinkable" scenarios every year.

It also provides a more graceful out for the people who didn't see the crash coming. Rather than having to discard their entire academic career because it's garbage, they can say "well, I sure didn't see that coming, but let's update out scenarios to make sure we'll be ready to deal with it next time." While not as viscerally satisfying as purging the morons, it would go a long way towards improving the financial regulator's combat readiness.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Dec 4th, 2010 at 10:58:54 AM EST
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