This started out as a simple report on an opinion poll which expanded to explain the difficulty of forecasting seat outcomes from headline % vote share data.  I then began speculating on the likely outcome of such a shift in voting patterns but surprised even myself by my conclusion - that the result was likely to be a tectonic shift in Irish attitudes to the EU  - despite the fact that Fine Gael and Labour are traditionally very Europhile.

Sinn Fein are staring to give a concrete political expression to the xenophobic, Nationalist, and atavistic vote that appeared in a more inchoate form in the NO votes on EU referenda.  I can't see their rise not effecting how even a Fine Gael Labour government would act.  Gerry Adams would be Leader of the Opposition on the basis of these figures after all...

Index of Frank's Diaries