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The fact that the SP will lose a lot mainly has to do with the unusual number of seats they have now and the personal charisma of Agnes Kant.
A lot of the elections in the Netherlands will turn on meta issues and personal signalling. In that sense showing some backbone might be the game changer for Bos and the PvdA.
But seriously, is it that in NL she is not considered a draw? I see that both PS and Labor are falling (as are the Christian Democrats) with the extremist Liberal parties doing quite well. Wonder if there is an historical connexion with the move to ultra-liberalism in times of tumult and instability in NL. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
There's a lot of choice on the left! Even the Animal Party for those who feel that GroenLinks isn't a sufficiently particular issue party.
For the SP there's the option of campaigning as a party but there are too many intellectuals in the SP in general. So they're probably going to lose half their seats. 12 seats is still not a historically bad result for the party.
SP basically came forward from strong local politics and strongman Jan Marijnissen build the Socialist Party to national prominence. Agnes Kant or anyone else, could never expect to keep those same voters and seats. Try to look at the historic division of voters: 40% Labor and socialists (left), 35% Christian Democrats and tiny parties (center) and 25% Liberal Democrats and parties to the right. It's clear how most coalitions were formed.
New parties of populists movements are created, expand and implode. In the past, such a party did well and gained 5% of the vote or 8 seats. Fortuyn upset the old balance by gaining nearly 20% and some 26 seats. The election in May 2002 was one that we'll never see again: Liberals VVD and Labor PvdA decimated and very surprising Christian Democrats from opposition role with a young, new leader Balkenende getting 43 seats.
After the attacks og 9/11, the murders of Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh has truly caused the voters to drift. The election results are highly unpredictable and the polls never concur. At the moment, criticism is an easy attribute in politics: economic recession and difficult choice on social issues to be made for a coming generation. Once the campaign gets underway and the television debates have started, the true preference of voters will become somewhat visible. Historically, 25% of the voters will make their choice in the voter booth! Plenty of surprises will be possible. A previous ally of Gert Wilders is Rita Verdonk. Her one-woman party had polled 10% before, now she will find it difficult to earn her own seat in parliament. On the left side, the Liberal Party D'66 have made a stunning recovery in the polls: 12% or 18 seats.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence." 'Sapere aude'
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Also, SP's stances on immigration were rather well aligned with working class interests, unlike the socialist and social democratic parties of other countries as in mine, and wonder if some of the (shall we say casual) electorate of the SP last time around are bleeding to Wilders. Which would be unfortunate...but there I could see the confidence and charisma question working if indeed Kant is not seen as credible among this section of voters (and indeed I see she is often portrayed as "German-born")
Confess to understanding little of the "liberal" left and so the D'66 thing goes completely over my head. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Wikipedia: Election results D'66
Working class interests in this country can result in rather... provincial perspectives. The outside world is just that: an outside world. Both the SP and Wilders play into this effectively.
Labour will have to re-create itself before we can even speculate about progressive politics again. Some change in the air of that, but there is no guarantee at all it will take root. And I have no faith this will happen with Bos at the helm.
So Labour will have to be squashed. And with GreenLeft and SP not gaining, this means that the worst parties come to political power first.
I think the outcome of the elections will largely be a result of the dynamics of the campaign. But we'll see. If the PvdA starts polling around the same number of seats as the CDA and Wilders again the dynamic will at some point shift to "who will lead the new government" and there they should be able to edge out both.
A large national PvdA does not equate with progressive politics at this point.
The best we may actually hope for coming national elections just might be a return to "Purple" - a PvdA, VVD, D66 tripartite. Were that to happen, the misery will just continue for another 8 years give or take - within a Purple alliance the PvdA can simply continue the current line of Third Way thinking.
And never mind that the local elections will lose its last smidgen of local colour, and become entirely predominated by national narratives. For democracy it is dismal.
The political climate can change very quickly, that remains the largest opportunity for the left.
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