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I find the "worse before it gets better" approach to progressive politics extremely stupid. How many times does it need to end in "worse before it gets worse still" before people will give up the notion?

The fact that the SP will lose a lot mainly has to do with the unusual number of seats they have now and the personal charisma of Agnes Kant.

A lot of the elections in the Netherlands will turn on meta issues and personal signalling. In that sense showing some backbone might be the game changer for Bos and the PvdA.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 08:03:46 AM EST
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I confess to feeling the opposite. Hell, when she speaks it even makes Dutch sound beautiful!

But seriously, is it that in NL she is not considered a draw? I see that both PS and Labor are falling (as are the Christian Democrats) with the extremist Liberal parties doing quite well. Wonder if there is an historical connexion with the move to ultra-liberalism in times of tumult and instability in NL.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 10:00:32 AM EST
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Marijnissen's shoes are big to fill for anyone in terms of charisma. Kant is generally perceived as too sour. The bigger problem is that she can't convey a blue collar attitude, which Marijnissen excelled at, and which would be the only personal way to distinguish her party from the overly intellectual leadership of GroenLinks and the PvdA.

There's a lot of choice on the left! Even the Animal Party for those who feel that GroenLinks isn't a sufficiently particular issue party.

For the SP there's the option of campaigning as a party but there are too many intellectuals in the SP in general. So they're probably going to lose half their seats. 12 seats is still not a historically bad result for the party.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 01:36:33 PM EST
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It has been always easier to be in opposition and gain plenty of seats; once in a coalition, the same number of seats evaporate. Fortuyn appealed to the silent minority of a populist movement, many of whom had never before cast a vote. Fortuyn's list was unable to produce candidates of minimal quality. He himself was aware of it, just in the local election of 2002, his affiliated party Leefbaar Rotterdam got one third of the vote in Rotterdam. This came at a cost to the Labor Party PvdA.

SP basically came forward from strong local politics and strongman Jan Marijnissen build the Socialist Party to national prominence. Agnes Kant or anyone else, could never expect to keep those same voters and seats. Try to look at the historic division of voters: 40% Labor and socialists (left), 35% Christian Democrats and tiny parties (center) and 25% Liberal Democrats and parties to the right. It's clear how most coalitions were formed.

New parties of populists movements are created, expand and implode. In the past, such a party did well and gained 5% of the vote or 8 seats. Fortuyn upset the old balance by gaining nearly 20% and some 26 seats. The election in May 2002 was one that we'll never see again: Liberals VVD and Labor PvdA decimated and very surprising Christian Democrats from opposition role with a young, new leader Balkenende getting 43 seats.

After the attacks og 9/11, the murders of Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh has truly caused the voters to drift. The election results are highly unpredictable and the polls never concur. At the moment, criticism is an easy attribute in politics: economic recession and difficult choice on social issues to be made for a coming generation. Once the campaign gets underway and the television debates have started, the true preference of voters will become somewhat visible. Historically, 25% of the voters will make their choice in the voter booth! Plenty of surprises will be possible. A previous ally of Gert Wilders is Rita Verdonk. Her one-woman party had polled 10% before, now she will find it difficult to earn her own seat in parliament. On the left side, the Liberal Party D'66 have made a stunning recovery in the polls: 12% or 18 seats.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 02:17:08 PM EST
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I knew the SP had especially emphasized local politics first, which tend to produce more disciplined candidates in future, but I also know them to be somewhat geographically concentrated in that regard, and wonder if difficulty in finding good candidates has to do with those places they are not strong.

Also, SP's stances on immigration were rather well aligned with working class interests, unlike the socialist and social democratic parties of other countries as in mine, and wonder if some of the (shall we say casual) electorate of the SP last time around are bleeding to Wilders. Which would be unfortunate...but there I could see the confidence and charisma question working if indeed Kant is not seen as credible among this section of voters (and indeed I see she is often portrayed as "German-born")

Confess to understanding little of the "liberal" left and so the D'66 thing goes completely over my head.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 05:30:50 PM EST
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The ideology of D66 is a highly contested subject within the party. The question is tied to the reason for its existence.
There are two currents within the party: the radical democrats and the progressive liberals.

Wikipedia: Election results D'66

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 09:17:53 PM EST
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SP votes are bleeding to Wilders, little doubts about it. This should hardly be any wonder when you compare both parties and what problems they address. Add the charisma question and it´s a done deal.

Working class interests in this country can result in rather... provincial perspectives. The outside world is just that: an outside world. Both the SP and Wilders play into this effectively.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Mon Feb 22nd, 2010 at 03:41:02 AM EST
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there's no other way than down. We've been on this road since 2002. Fortuyn still rules this country beyond the grave.

Labour will have to re-create itself before we can even speculate about progressive politics again. Some change in the air of that, but there is no guarantee at all it will take root. And I have no faith this will happen with Bos at the helm.

So Labour will have to be squashed. And with GreenLeft and SP not gaining, this  means that the worst parties come to political power first.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 04:56:12 PM EST
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There have been a lot of ups and downs since 2002. The PvdA was once just two seats removed from being the biggest party again. This indicates the extent to which the electorate is in flux, as oui also pointed out.

I think the outcome of the elections will largely be a result of the dynamics of the campaign. But we'll see. If the PvdA starts polling around the same number of seats as the CDA and Wilders again the dynamic will at some point shift to "who will lead the new government" and there they should be able to edge out both.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 21st, 2010 at 05:58:03 PM EST
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These are good points, but I was under the impression you were talking about progressive politics. And all the PvdA has done the past 2 years is stemming the bleeding of the previous 6. Plus hitch up the retirement age with 2 years. With respect to progressive politics, there is zero to nought to report.

A large national PvdA does not equate with progressive politics at this point.

The best we may actually hope for coming national elections just might be a return to "Purple" - a PvdA, VVD, D66 tripartite. Were that to happen, the misery will just continue for another 8 years give or take - within a Purple alliance the PvdA can simply continue the current line of Third Way thinking.

And never mind that the local elections will lose its last smidgen of local colour, and become entirely predominated by national narratives. For democracy it is dismal.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Mon Feb 22nd, 2010 at 03:23:22 AM EST
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What we need is a progressive government (D66/PvdA/GroenLinks/SP). Obviously that's not happening right now in the polls (they'd have around 60-65 seats together) but that doesn't mean we shouldn't push for it.

The political climate can change very quickly, that remains the largest opportunity for the left.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Feb 22nd, 2010 at 10:50:26 AM EST
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