The Conservative lead has hardened at a level that would only just give David Cameron a majority, according to a ComRes poll for tomorrow's Independent on Sunday.

Conservative      40% (+2)
Labour                 29% (-2)
Lib Dem               21% (+2)
Others               &nbs p;   10% (-2)
(Changes since ComRes for The Independent, 2 February.)

The 11-point Tory lead would give Cameron an 18-seat majority according to Martin Baxter, but leave him three seats short according to the House of Commons Library (pdf: page xviii).