Is there a future at all... | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 0)

I get an "Asset Missing" message and then shown an advertisement for some show about Italian food coming to Australia.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 04:55:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is there a future at all... (4.00 / 3)

I can open it on my lap top but for some reason it seems to be missing when I try on my other computer.Yes there are adds first but then after that it should start...

For those who can't watch it here is something to read about it

http://www.throng.com.au/baby-boom-bust/part-one-missing-children

Part One: Missing Children
Thursday February 26, 8.30pm
The first episode of Baby Boom to Bust profiles four countries all grappling with declining birth rates and potential economic decline. Catholic Italy, a country devoted to family, today has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. The dying town of Laviano is a portent of what can happen to any community or country when people stop having children. In Japan, where women are increasingly choosing work over marriage, their elders now fear for the future. Meanwhile in Australia, women in their thirties are finding it harder than ever to find a man who'll commit to a relationship and family, and the trend has spawned a multi-million dollar dating industry. In China the government's `one-child' policy has taken the country from one extreme to another within a generation. Consequently, an indulged generation of single children, the `little emperors' will one day have the sole responsibility of caring for many elders.

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 06:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is there a future at all... (4.00 / 2)

Globally the problem is not shrinking population, it is growing population.

Us whitefellas is another matter. After going through the demographic transition when the white population increased a lot, and then stabilizing in the 20th century, it is now shrinking. Interesting, but nothing points towards this trend continuing in for ever, particularly as none of the previous ones did. Population for example did not keep doubling infinitely.

If Europe, Australia or somewhere else has problems with to few young ones, it is an easy problem to fix. Open the borders and let those that want to move there.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 09:22:00 AM EST
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Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 0)

That won't help at all, it's just pushing the problem forward. Or what do we do when these immigrants grow old? Import Martians?

The entire demographic crisis is something of a myth. As the number of children have fallen as well, the fraction of the population that is non-productive will remain constant for decades. This becomes even clearer when you observe that as health improves among older people, the retirement age heads upward as well.

And when it actually starts shrinking, well, that'll finally help get rid of youth unemployment.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 09:50:27 AM EST
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Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 0)

Open the borders and let those that want to move there.
---------
Yeah I don't think it will solve the problem too... not in a long run. All though we will all see more open borders and more immigrants all over developed world. Not because we love immigrants and diversity but because we NEED them or our economy will go down the toilet. Perpetual growth of our economies that we all see as necessary demand more people...and not only in employment sense...but also in new consumers sense.
Population globally may even explode ( especially if we do not make those poor countries rich, as we are ,LOL).But in this movie they say that statistics told us, if nothing changes, in the year 3100 there will be JUST ONE Japanese man in Japan. Demographics are going to change greatly all over the world. How this is going to feel ? Maybe in countries that are melting pots where nationality is not recognized (or important) like USA or even one day Australia it will not be big deal. But what about Europe? Who is going to "inherit" Italy? Romanians, Albanians, Africans? Do not get me wrong I have nothing against these people but isn't it going to be a big loss if world loses Italians? Japanese on the other hand do not want immigrants on their soil. They would rather have robots...If they stay this course they will vanish from earth. Which is also great loss! Looks like some nations are going to be endangered species. We are trying to save diversity in nature ( animals , plants), what about this then?
And about religion. Obviously those religions like Islam ( and probably others but I do not think Catholics are in this group looking at their numbers) who are against contraception, abortion etc. will supposedly thrive...and overcome others. Especially if we do not help them higher their standard of living , which can only be done by women's employment ...I suppose...Then again if they overcome others it will be only just...This was our choice...Just few thoughts...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 10:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 1)

I do not think the current level of children in Japan will be constant to 3100. Looking at the steps in the demographic transition each step is at most a couple of generations.

(See Wikipedia for mre about that graph.)

I see no reason why stage 5 would be an end stage, it seems more likely that decreasing birth rates for a couple of generations will trigger some societal changes that changes the birth rates (assuming a lack of external changes). So I do not think Italians or Japanese will disappear, but I do think their societies will change. Thinking about how might be interesting, the population will grow older and - assuming the difference in life spans between men and women does not go away - thus more female. How will that effect their cultures?

If the low number of children is considered a problem, the nordic countries has shown that greater equality and lower burdens on parents does increase the number of children. Paid parental leave, heavily subsidized day care, free health care for children, paid leave for parents when their child is sick and so on. If more governments see themselves forced to adopt such measures, then that might have positive effects on their politics in general.

Btw, if someone inherits Italy it would (demographically) more likely be people from Africa, then from eastern Europe or Middle East. Here is a map of fertility rates in different countries:

(found at Wikipedia)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Mar 4th, 2010 at 03:11:45 AM EST
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Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 0)

In the movie they keep saying " if nothing changes"...Let's hope that something will change.

Paid parental leave, heavily subsidized day care, free health care for children, paid leave for parents when their child is sick and so on.

We in Serbia had it all during socialism...didn't change much of the declining birth rate.
Here in Australia Howard at some point handed real money for every child ( like in the movie mayor of Laviano).It was about $ 3000 per child here.It worked for awhile (all tho mostly for very young mums) but it's not long term solution.I do not know what is...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Thu Mar 4th, 2010 at 10:21:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is there a future at all... (none / 1)

GREY TSUNAMI
In this century the world's population will grow
dramatically older. This second episode takes us
into the lives of people across the world already
impacted by the inevitable march of global ageing.
In China elderly people in the countryside are left to
fend for themselves as families shrink. In Australia
the so-called 'sandwich generation' finds itself
trapped between caring for both grown up children
and frail parents, with no prospect of ever retiring.

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 06:24:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is there a future at all... (4.00 / 3)

The Japanese, who live longest of all, are looking to robots rather than immigrants to care for their senior citizens. Italy, the country which for generations sent its own workers abroad, now depends on illegal immigrants to care for its elderly.

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Mar 3rd, 2010 at 06:36:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is there a future at all... | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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