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archdruidreport is assuming that the primary point of the electrification of rail lines is to allow existing rail freight to move with electric traction.

Given a false premise, the conclusion is invalid and whether it is a sound conclusion from the premise is really beside the point.

So start from archdruidreport's conclusion. We preserve fossil fuels for current rail freight.

Now, we may be able to dispense with much of the freight that was moving on the road, but we still need to move some of it. What is the only way under current technology to shift the long haul truck freight to non fossil fuel? To do so with long distance electric rail and generate that electricity without using fossil fuel.

This project accomplishes both of those objectives.

So rather than archdruidreport's conclusion attacking the Steel Interstate project, the conclusion supports it.

Bear in mind that electrifying the 30,000+ miles of STRACNET is only 20% or so of US rail corridor miles. Electrifying the 15,000+ miles proposed here is only 10% or so of US rail corridor miles.

So taking this proposal as formally equivalent to electrifying all rail ... which archdruidreport's argument tacitly does ... is a category mistake. This proposal is more precisely, "establish a national rapid electric rail system to act as a substitute for a substantial share of existing diesel semi truck freight".


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Mar 16th, 2010 at 03:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't follow your argument though, we have a continuous knapsack problem.  We want to optimise total cost (fossil fuel usage) by investing in X or Y.  X has a lower cost than Y, so we should invest in Y. (really we need to know the dX/dcost vs dY/dcost and pick the greater)

Please note, it was someone else commenting on on his blog:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=27481991&postID=2232157439199671445

by njh on Wed Mar 17th, 2010 at 06:46:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we should invest in Y. Y is diesel truck freight. We should invest in reducing the energy consumption of diesel truck freight.

The most cost-effective investment in reducing the energy consumption of diesel truck freight with at the same time the largest total reduction in diesel consumption is providing a Rapid Electric Freight Rail system that can capture a large share of existing long haul truck freight.

IOW, the argument, "X is more efficient, so we should invest in cutting use by Y", leads to the conclusion, "invest in electrification of rail and establishment of rapid freight rail, which cuts use by Y".


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Mar 17th, 2010 at 11:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would say that we should convert diesel truck freight to diesel rail freight, if that gets us the most bang for buck.

(I was pleased to discover today that they are actually triplicating 'my rail line' at the moment after looking up what all the heavy machinery was doing I saw on the train home today.  This means the possibility of electrifying freight to eastern Vic, but only if they switch from the 1910 era 1500DC to a modern 25kVAC.  I'm pleased anyway that they are actually spending useful amounts of money, and getting rewarded - regional rail has doubled ridership in the last 2 years, and is limited by available seating rather than demand!)

by njh on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:18:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The conversion of truck freight to any rail freight is the largest volume of energy saved ... the very large percentage gain from diesel rail to electric rail is a bit deceptive, since its a percentage gain after a very large percentage gain has been made.

But its about more than the engineering, its about making the change happen as quickly as possible without having to wait for crisis conditions to hit. Under current economic conditions and current diesel prices in the US, if rapid electric freight rail corridors were being established on the terms above, they would quickly capture a quite substantial share of existing truck freight, and of course the addition of electric supply to the parallel existing heavy freight lines would directly increase their capacity.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 11:45:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't switzerland a counter example, with almost all lines electrified, yet no significantly different level of freight than say germany, with a low electrification level?
by njh on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 11:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You'll note that Switzerland is in the Alps.

More critically, unlike the US, in Switzerland, when freight is overtaken by passenger rail, the freight not only is supposed to but also can and does shunt aside to let the passenger rail through, and since the electrification is to permit ruling grades as steep as 2.6% (~1:40), freight is normally slower than passenger rail.

Hence the base tunnels ... to get longer freight trains moving at a speed to allow it to make more progress before shunting aside to allow passenger trains to overtake, the base tunnels allow the ruling grade to be brought down to 1.2% (~1:80) overland and 0.7% (~1:140) in the tunnels themselves.

The US already has the mainlines that allow longer freight trains to move at their own pace without constantly shunting aside to let passenger trains through. Electrifying those corridors will reduce their operating costs and also upgrade their capacity, given the higher power/weight ratio of electric versus diesel electric traction.

That upgrade in capacity will allow rail operators to chase business that is at present marginal.

And at the same time and more critically in terms of total impact on the status of the US as a dependent economy, the US mainlines tend to be 1% grades (1:100), and even lines crossing the Rockies can be routed so that the majority of the long haul route is at that grade. A combination of 100mph paths on the flatter terrain that include superelevation (banking) to allow curves to be taken at 90mph~100mph without excessive wear, and 40mph~50mph paths with 2.5% grades to cut out extended switchbacks in the rough terrain offers a substantially faster path for freight ... and at the same time the existing heavy freight paths with their existing capacity support faster conventional freight with lower operating costs.

Its not a conversion of existing capacity, but an upgrade of existing capacity and addition of new capacity.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 12:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, we have reached the point where I have no further cards to play :)  It would be nice to have an example where electrification and speed upgrades alone changed the mode share.  The best we can do perhaps is high speed passenger transport, but surely the factors that affect that split are completely different (people care about time in a way that consumer goods don't).  Or maybe DoDo has a real world example?
by njh on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its quality of service and cost of service that changes mode share. The Steel Interstate proposal is not based on a generic benefit of electrification and speed upgrades but on specific qualities of service that become possible with rail freight in competing for long haul diesel semi truck freight transport as a result of electrification and establishment of express freight rail paths.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 09:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do think that electrification and speed upgrades alone are insufficient, and making policy choices (f.e. highway toll for trucks as in Germany, or transalpine limitations as in Switzerland, or subsidies for local railfreight as in both Switzerland and Austria) counts. Also, in the Alpine context, with electrification done long ago, the effect is not a change in modal share but maintaining a higher share.

However, based on the development of the port traffic, electrification and speed upgrades appear to be the way to go: Rotterdam's port traffic is migrating to electric traction with the final bits of electrification on the Betuweroute going on-line end of last year, and the same happened a few months earlier on Antwerp's port traffic, with the electrification of the Montzen route (to Aachen/Germany) finished in early 2009. But how that affects the modal split, we'll see only in the coming years.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I found 2008 numbers (first full year with Betuweroute operational):

Rail Tops 1 Million TEUs at Rotterdam | Journal of Commerce

Rail traffic grew 11.6 percent in 2008 to 1.01 million TEUs from 950,000 TEUs in the previous year even as overall container volume stagnated at 10.8 million TEUs, the port authority said.

Trucking slipped 5.7 percent to 4.48 million TEUs while inland shipping declined 4.4 percent to 2.34 million TEUs.

Rail's share of box traffic to and from Rotterdam gained two percent to 13 percent while road transport lost two percent to 57 percent and barging was stable at 30 percent.

In contrast, for Hamburg's port, which has electric connection for long, 70% of the containers transported on to the European hinterland are carried by rail in 2003 (slides 8, 11); much more in absolute numbers than in Rotterdam:

Hamburg Box Traffic Plunged 27.8 Percent | Journal of Commerce

Total container volume at the port of Hamburg in the first nine months of the year fell 27.8 percent from a year ago to 5.3 million 20-foot equivalent units, driving the port into third place among Europe's container ports, after Rotterdam and now Antwerp.

...Antwerp moved into second place, handling 5.4 million TEUs in the first nine months, down 18.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.

Rotterdam consolidated its top ranking with a more modest 13 percent decline to 7.2 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2009.

...Inland rail container traffic fell 19 percent in the first nine months to 1.2 million TEUs in the first nine months but this did not result in a reduction in the number of services, the port said.

(Note: the 5.3 million TEU overall container traffic includes ship-dominated transit, road-dominated local delivery, and on-site unloading.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hm? In transalpine freight traffic, even in crisis year 2007, rail had a modal share of 61%; in domestic traffic, it was 40% in 2008 -- both numbers waaay above that in Germany.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 03:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I was merely recalling numbers I'd heard.  But it is quite possible those numbers were un'Reason'able.
by njh on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 07:39:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They'd be handy ... Alan Drake is arguing the unpossibility of effective rail freight transport through even the mildest of mountain valley bottom terrain in the Appalachian mountains, and using the Swiss case to argue that nothing but base tunnels can make it possible to provide more rapid freight rail paths along existing mainline alignments in the western US.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 09:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I took the figures from articles after a quick search, which I shouldn't have trusted that much, but here are primary sources from the Swiss statistical institute (in German):

  • modal split time series (Excel) until 2008, in the total Swiss freight traffic (not just domestic).

  • Transalpine traffic until 2008 (all crossings shown, not just Switzerland; "Schiene" = rail, "Strasse" = road; countries on the diagram below: France-Switzerland-Austria)

  • Transalpine traffic in 2009 (pdf) in the preliminary release of the Swiss transport ministry in German; you'll find the 60.6% figure for rail in the before-last paragraph (or you can calculate it based on the second table on page 2, fields "Strasse CH" and "Schiene CH").


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:25:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But doesn't Switzerland have very high tolls for trucks on the roads? In other words, one can't conclude immediately that any of this percentage is due to electrification.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:40:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, see new comments upthread.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:55:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... I was having a very hard time finding anything at that blog talking about rail electrification.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Mar 18th, 2010 at 01:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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