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Given a false premise, the conclusion is invalid and whether it is a sound conclusion from the premise is really beside the point.
So start from archdruidreport's conclusion. We preserve fossil fuels for current rail freight.
Now, we may be able to dispense with much of the freight that was moving on the road, but we still need to move some of it. What is the only way under current technology to shift the long haul truck freight to non fossil fuel? To do so with long distance electric rail and generate that electricity without using fossil fuel.
This project accomplishes both of those objectives.
So rather than archdruidreport's conclusion attacking the Steel Interstate project, the conclusion supports it.
Bear in mind that electrifying the 30,000+ miles of STRACNET is only 20% or so of US rail corridor miles. Electrifying the 15,000+ miles proposed here is only 10% or so of US rail corridor miles.
So taking this proposal as formally equivalent to electrifying all rail ... which archdruidreport's argument tacitly does ... is a category mistake. This proposal is more precisely, "establish a national rapid electric rail system to act as a substitute for a substantial share of existing diesel semi truck freight". I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Please note, it was someone else commenting on on his blog: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=27481991&postID=2232157439199671445
The most cost-effective investment in reducing the energy consumption of diesel truck freight with at the same time the largest total reduction in diesel consumption is providing a Rapid Electric Freight Rail system that can capture a large share of existing long haul truck freight.
IOW, the argument, "X is more efficient, so we should invest in cutting use by Y", leads to the conclusion, "invest in electrification of rail and establishment of rapid freight rail, which cuts use by Y". I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
(I was pleased to discover today that they are actually triplicating 'my rail line' at the moment after looking up what all the heavy machinery was doing I saw on the train home today. This means the possibility of electrifying freight to eastern Vic, but only if they switch from the 1910 era 1500DC to a modern 25kVAC. I'm pleased anyway that they are actually spending useful amounts of money, and getting rewarded - regional rail has doubled ridership in the last 2 years, and is limited by available seating rather than demand!)
But its about more than the engineering, its about making the change happen as quickly as possible without having to wait for crisis conditions to hit. Under current economic conditions and current diesel prices in the US, if rapid electric freight rail corridors were being established on the terms above, they would quickly capture a quite substantial share of existing truck freight, and of course the addition of electric supply to the parallel existing heavy freight lines would directly increase their capacity. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
More critically, unlike the US, in Switzerland, when freight is overtaken by passenger rail, the freight not only is supposed to but also can and does shunt aside to let the passenger rail through, and since the electrification is to permit ruling grades as steep as 2.6% (~1:40), freight is normally slower than passenger rail.
Hence the base tunnels ... to get longer freight trains moving at a speed to allow it to make more progress before shunting aside to allow passenger trains to overtake, the base tunnels allow the ruling grade to be brought down to 1.2% (~1:80) overland and 0.7% (~1:140) in the tunnels themselves.
The US already has the mainlines that allow longer freight trains to move at their own pace without constantly shunting aside to let passenger trains through. Electrifying those corridors will reduce their operating costs and also upgrade their capacity, given the higher power/weight ratio of electric versus diesel electric traction.
That upgrade in capacity will allow rail operators to chase business that is at present marginal.
And at the same time and more critically in terms of total impact on the status of the US as a dependent economy, the US mainlines tend to be 1% grades (1:100), and even lines crossing the Rockies can be routed so that the majority of the long haul route is at that grade. A combination of 100mph paths on the flatter terrain that include superelevation (banking) to allow curves to be taken at 90mph~100mph without excessive wear, and 40mph~50mph paths with 2.5% grades to cut out extended switchbacks in the rough terrain offers a substantially faster path for freight ... and at the same time the existing heavy freight paths with their existing capacity support faster conventional freight with lower operating costs.
Its not a conversion of existing capacity, but an upgrade of existing capacity and addition of new capacity. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
However, based on the development of the port traffic, electrification and speed upgrades appear to be the way to go: Rotterdam's port traffic is migrating to electric traction with the final bits of electrification on the Betuweroute going on-line end of last year, and the same happened a few months earlier on Antwerp's port traffic, with the electrification of the Montzen route (to Aachen/Germany) finished in early 2009. But how that affects the modal split, we'll see only in the coming years. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Rail Tops 1 Million TEUs at Rotterdam | Journal of Commerce
Rail traffic grew 11.6 percent in 2008 to 1.01 million TEUs from 950,000 TEUs in the previous year even as overall container volume stagnated at 10.8 million TEUs, the port authority said. Trucking slipped 5.7 percent to 4.48 million TEUs while inland shipping declined 4.4 percent to 2.34 million TEUs. Rail's share of box traffic to and from Rotterdam gained two percent to 13 percent while road transport lost two percent to 57 percent and barging was stable at 30 percent.
Rail traffic grew 11.6 percent in 2008 to 1.01 million TEUs from 950,000 TEUs in the previous year even as overall container volume stagnated at 10.8 million TEUs, the port authority said.
Trucking slipped 5.7 percent to 4.48 million TEUs while inland shipping declined 4.4 percent to 2.34 million TEUs.
Rail's share of box traffic to and from Rotterdam gained two percent to 13 percent while road transport lost two percent to 57 percent and barging was stable at 30 percent.
In contrast, for Hamburg's port, which has electric connection for long, 70% of the containers transported on to the European hinterland are carried by rail in 2003 (slides 8, 11); much more in absolute numbers than in Rotterdam:
Hamburg Box Traffic Plunged 27.8 Percent | Journal of Commerce
Total container volume at the port of Hamburg in the first nine months of the year fell 27.8 percent from a year ago to 5.3 million 20-foot equivalent units, driving the port into third place among Europe's container ports, after Rotterdam and now Antwerp. ...Antwerp moved into second place, handling 5.4 million TEUs in the first nine months, down 18.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.Rotterdam consolidated its top ranking with a more modest 13 percent decline to 7.2 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2009. ...Inland rail container traffic fell 19 percent in the first nine months to 1.2 million TEUs in the first nine months but this did not result in a reduction in the number of services, the port said.
Total container volume at the port of Hamburg in the first nine months of the year fell 27.8 percent from a year ago to 5.3 million 20-foot equivalent units, driving the port into third place among Europe's container ports, after Rotterdam and now Antwerp.
...Antwerp moved into second place, handling 5.4 million TEUs in the first nine months, down 18.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
Rotterdam consolidated its top ranking with a more modest 13 percent decline to 7.2 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2009.
...Inland rail container traffic fell 19 percent in the first nine months to 1.2 million TEUs in the first nine months but this did not result in a reduction in the number of services, the port said.
(Note: the 5.3 million TEU overall container traffic includes ship-dominated transit, road-dominated local delivery, and on-site unloading.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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