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I do think that electrification and speed upgrades alone are insufficient, and making policy choices (f.e. highway toll for trucks as in Germany, or transalpine limitations as in Switzerland, or subsidies for local railfreight as in both Switzerland and Austria) counts. Also, in the Alpine context, with electrification done long ago, the effect is not a change in modal share but maintaining a higher share.

However, based on the development of the port traffic, electrification and speed upgrades appear to be the way to go: Rotterdam's port traffic is migrating to electric traction with the final bits of electrification on the Betuweroute going on-line end of last year, and the same happened a few months earlier on Antwerp's port traffic, with the electrification of the Montzen route (to Aachen/Germany) finished in early 2009. But how that affects the modal split, we'll see only in the coming years.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:34:08 AM EST
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I found 2008 numbers (first full year with Betuweroute operational):

Rail Tops 1 Million TEUs at Rotterdam | Journal of Commerce

Rail traffic grew 11.6 percent in 2008 to 1.01 million TEUs from 950,000 TEUs in the previous year even as overall container volume stagnated at 10.8 million TEUs, the port authority said.

Trucking slipped 5.7 percent to 4.48 million TEUs while inland shipping declined 4.4 percent to 2.34 million TEUs.

Rail's share of box traffic to and from Rotterdam gained two percent to 13 percent while road transport lost two percent to 57 percent and barging was stable at 30 percent.

In contrast, for Hamburg's port, which has electric connection for long, 70% of the containers transported on to the European hinterland are carried by rail in 2003 (slides 8, 11); much more in absolute numbers than in Rotterdam:

Hamburg Box Traffic Plunged 27.8 Percent | Journal of Commerce

Total container volume at the port of Hamburg in the first nine months of the year fell 27.8 percent from a year ago to 5.3 million 20-foot equivalent units, driving the port into third place among Europe's container ports, after Rotterdam and now Antwerp.

...Antwerp moved into second place, handling 5.4 million TEUs in the first nine months, down 18.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.

Rotterdam consolidated its top ranking with a more modest 13 percent decline to 7.2 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2009.

...Inland rail container traffic fell 19 percent in the first nine months to 1.2 million TEUs in the first nine months but this did not result in a reduction in the number of services, the port said.

(Note: the 5.3 million TEU overall container traffic includes ship-dominated transit, road-dominated local delivery, and on-site unloading.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 19th, 2010 at 04:54:36 AM EST
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