I do think that electrification and speed upgrades alone are insufficient, and making policy choices (f.e. highway toll for trucks as in Germany, or transalpine limitations as in Switzerland, or subsidies for local railfreight as in both Switzerland and Austria) counts. Also, in the Alpine context, with electrification done long ago, the effect is not a change in modal share but maintaining a higher share.

However, based on the development of the port traffic, electrification and speed upgrades appear to be the way to go: Rotterdam's port traffic is migrating to electric traction with the final bits of electrification on the Betuweroute going on-line end of last year, and the same happened a few months earlier on Antwerp's port traffic, with the electrification of the Montzen route (to Aachen/Germany) finished in early 2009. But how that affects the modal split, we'll see only in the coming years.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}