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Blaming China will not solve America's problem | Opinion - Stephen Roach - FT.com

... some of America's most prominent economists are claiming that a revaluation of the renminbi vis-à-vis the dollar would not only create more than 1m jobs in the US but that it would inject new vigour into an otherwise anaemic global recovery. Economists should know better. Changes in relative prices are the ultimate zero-sum game - they re-slice the pie rather than expand or shrink it.

Currency, or relative price, adjustments between any two nations are not a panacea for structural imbalances in the global economy. What is needed, instead, is a shift in the mix of global saving. Specifically, America needs deficit reduction and an increase in personal saving, while China needs to stimulate internal private consumption.

Washington's scapegoating of China could take the world to the brink of a very slippery slope. It would not be the first time that political denial was premised on bad economics. But the consequences of such a blunder - trade frictions and protectionism - would make the crisis of 2008-09 look like child's play.

But wouldn't increasing the strength of the RMB encourage precisely what the author advocates, i.e. Americans would save more because they would be buying fewer (because now more expensive) Chinese products, and Chinese would spend more on private consumption.  That may just "re-slice the pie rather than expand or shrink it", but it would also be "a shift in the mix of global saving".

(The only potential problem I see in my interpretation is with the word internal in the clause

China needs to stimulate internal private consumption.

If internal means Chinese buying Chinese products, then I don't see how a stronger RMB would encourage that.  But if it simply means private consumption "among Chinese people" (regardless of whether what they buy is produced in China), then a stronger RMB should help with that.)

The point is not to be right, but to get to right.

by marco on Tue Mar 30th, 2010 at 08:19:53 AM EST
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The requirements for internal consumption driven growth in China, higher wages and less savings by workers,  is fundamentally opposed to the perceived need to maintain export markets. One thing that the Chinese Government could do to ease this dilemma would be to institute social health care and retirement systems. That would incur future costs but provide present benefits in the form of reduced preceived needs for savings.

It would seem that China could have much more room to run on the internal growth model than in being the low cost exporter. If deflation persists and intensifies even their recently accumulated stocks of raw commodities will not help them to export for long. But they will have to chose a path.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 30th, 2010 at 01:02:18 PM EST
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