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That all sounds about right to me...

The Conventional Wisdom never actually talks about the Japanese Bubble in detail - much as Serious People are already learning now to talk about the deficit and ignore the bubble that precipitated the latest crisis.

One thing that is clear to me from a number of ET discussions that doesn't seem to have made much mileage elsewhere (except Naked Capitalism some days) is that a number of things interacted:

  • deregulation
  • the resurrection of old tools from the 20s (typically called "financial innovation")
 - the networked economy (which allowed the tools to grow further than in the 20s)
- the structure of the banking system

The effect was that far more than ever in the past, money creation was in the hands of the banks and other private financial institutions. For them, increasing the money supply led to more deals they could skim transaction fees from...

Of course, one can't ignore the Greenspan put, etc. but your diary suggests to me that a critical part of making such a massive bubble was the move of the control money creation into the private sector, using instruments that did not show up under many of the conventional measures of money supply. Thus the parallels between your memory of the Japan crisis and the latest crisis are rather strong.

At the same time, the decision to abandon measures which did highlight some of what was going on was just insane... who knows if that was malice or incompetence...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Mar 22nd, 2010 at 07:15:56 PM EST
the decision to abandon measures which did highlight some of what was going on was just insane... who knows if that was malice or incompetence...

I will only note that any competent bank burglar knows to disable the intrusion detection system before going for the money.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Mar 22nd, 2010 at 09:16:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
who knows if that was malice or incompetence...

The two are not mutually exclusive.  The Cheney administration proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 08:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the decision to abandon measures which did highlight some of what was going on was just insane...

You keep referring to the comments to my diary The M3 money supply: much ado about nothing? from October 7th, 2007.


The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 11:30:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
wow 2.5 years ago...

time flies.

I think it's important, but I don't have a proper theory - just the same hunch. It all ties together, but M3 is just a marker, the important bit is the belief that wage inflation matters, but asset inflation does not...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 12:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the belief is more that wage inflation is inflationary and v. v. bad, while asset inflation isn't just an entirely good thing, it's the whole point of the exercise.

But for consumers, there's very little practical difference between wage inflation and asset inflation. If I'm in the middle of a housing bubble and spending 60% of my income on a mortage or on rent because I have no choice, the real cost of everything else might as well have increased.

In contradiction to the theory, I'd suggest that the real determinant of inflation is the balance between discretionary or forced spending. The ticket price of individual items is a secondary factor.

If I'm forced to spend an amount on X, that means I no longer have the choice to spend it on Y, and I'm effectively impoverished in real terms, in almost exactly the same way as I would be a by a tax increase.

Wage inflation can have the same effect if it's systemic - but currently corporations have plenty of scope for raising wages without increasing prices, so that hardly applies.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 01:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
asset inflation isn't just an entirely good thing, it's the whole point of the exercise.

Well, considering that stock market indices are indices of asset price level and the attention the serious people pay to them as indicators of economic health... I think you may be onto something.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 01:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ThatBritGuy:
But for consumers, there's very little practical difference between wage inflation and asset inflation.

Not quite. Assets inflation benefits asset owners who see their net worth grow (along with the income they can earn), while everything a consumer spends money for is not necessarily an asset: food, clothing, transportation and utilities...
Wage inflation rather than asset inflation is actually much more useful for these everyday expenses, and this is precisely where the gap has grown over the past decades, partly covered by growing debt: Assets have grown. Wages have not.
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 04:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Assets inflation benefits asset owners who see their net worth grow (along with the income they can earn)

The most important function of asset prices is for valuing the assets as collateral for debt. Owners don't benefit from the income they can earn so much as from the leverage they can put on their assets. Add limited liability and you're set.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 05:13:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why I said for consumers - whether they're on the wrong end of asset or wage inflation, they see rising prices and falling spending power.

They can compensate for wage inflation by attempting to increase their wages. Wage control rhetoric is structured to make this seem plausible, and also to limit it 'for everyone's good.'

There's no equivalent narrative for asset inflation. A house price bubble is labelled an opportunity, not a tragedy.

As Mig says, the other critical difference is leverage - assets can be leveraged to increase their nominal value, consumer goods and services can't.

Politically, the difference leads inevitably to plutocracy - or possibly it starts with plutocracy and leads inevitably towards its maintenance.

Effectively, power is defined by discretionary spending. Asset inflation squeezes discretionary spending, which in turn squeezes the political and economic power of consumers while enhancing the spending power of the ownership class.

Wage 'inflation' has the opposite effect. With generous discretionary income, consumers have more choices about how to spend their time, and aren't limited to 'productive' work.

Another relevant point is that historically, wage inflation has never been the cause of hyper-inflation. Although it's not often stated explicitly, there's often the implication that wage inflation will lead to a run-away inflationary death spiral.

In reality, hyper-inflation always happens for other reasons.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 23rd, 2010 at 07:23:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forced spending? Homo economicus knows of no forced spending. Homo economicus needs no home - he (because being a women is uneconomical) can sleep in a tent. Homo economicus need not buy food when perfectly good food is thrown away every day.

In boom times homo economicus has a high paying job and lives like a bum, and when the bust comes he can cash in.

If this seems implausible to you you must not have met homo economicus, fortunately serious economists seem to know him very well.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 24th, 2010 at 05:15:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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