It seems that gloomy days could be coming for Poland's Kaczynski brothers and their Law and Justice party (PiS), the UK Conservatives' ally from their European Conservatives and Reformists group. The looming marginalisation of the Kaczynskis on the Polish political scene could have grave consequences for the Tories' alliance of Eurosceptics as well.

In 2007, after two years of governing shoulder to shoulder with far-right and populist parties,PiS was ousted from power by the centre-right Civic Platform (PO), ending Jaroslaw Kaczynski's premiership. All the same, his brother Lech has remained Poland's president, emerging as a rock-solid opposition to the new government. Now it appears that the president's days in office could be over quite soon.

Last Saturday, the ruling centre-right chose its presidential candidate, parliament speaker Bronislaw Komorowski, who will run against Kaczynski this autumn. The latest polls indicate that in the first round voters would favour Komorowski over Kaczynski by 38-21%. Third-party candidates garner no more than 5% of the vote, therefore their endorsement of any of the candidates is of little importance. In the runoff, the result would be even more devastating for the current president, as over 60% of Poles would vote for Komorowski, while only 27% would back Kaczynski. The parallel 24% support for the president's Law and Justice party is enough in order to remain a muscular opposition, but it is no match to the Civic Platform's 50%.