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Tough talk on China ignores economic reality | Opinion - Jim O'Neill - FT.com
With respect to domestic demand in China, there is rather clear evidence that, if anything, it is currently too strong, and certainly not at a level to justify accusations that China is not doing its "bit" for the world economy. <...> Chinese consumption is probably growing at about 15 per cent, similar to a 2-3 per cent rate for the US consumer. <....> Germany's trade with China is showing such strong growth that by spring next year, on current trends, it might exceed that with France. China last year reported a current account surplus of 5.8 per cent of GDP, significantly lower than apparently assumed as the current level by many people in Washington. In 2010, it could be closer to 3 per cent - incidentally below the 4 per cent level deemed as "equilibrium" by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. <...> At the moment, rather oddly, our model suggests that the renminbi is very close to the price that it should be. This has not always been the case. The model used to suggest the currency was undervalued by about 20 per cent, but it has moved by that degree in the past five years. ...
With respect to domestic demand in China, there is rather clear evidence that, if anything, it is currently too strong, and certainly not at a level to justify accusations that China is not doing its "bit" for the world economy. <...> Chinese consumption is probably growing at about 15 per cent, similar to a 2-3 per cent rate for the US consumer.
<....>
Germany's trade with China is showing such strong growth that by spring next year, on current trends, it might exceed that with France. China last year reported a current account surplus of 5.8 per cent of GDP, significantly lower than apparently assumed as the current level by many people in Washington. In 2010, it could be closer to 3 per cent - incidentally below the 4 per cent level deemed as "equilibrium" by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
<...>
At the moment, rather oddly, our model suggests that the renminbi is very close to the price that it should be. This has not always been the case. The model used to suggest the currency was undervalued by about 20 per cent, but it has moved by that degree in the past five years. ...
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