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At the moment those are the Government estimates of what the banks will need by way of capital based on estimated Nama haircuts and tightened regulatory requirements.  AIB will have to sell off its UK, Polish and US assets but Bank of Ireland has little outside Ireland to sell.  

All will try to raise what they can on international capital markets but the Government will act as a sort of guarantor making up any shortfall either by adding fresh capital or converting existing preference shares into ordinary shares.  Last time it injected fresh capital it got preference shares with a pricy 8% coupon in return - which the banks are also trying to unload if at all possible because of their cost.  Current estimates are that AIB will end up being 70% state owned and Bank of Ireland c. 40% made up (probably of ordinary share capital).

So all in all those state "investments" at least have some prospect of a decent return, unlikely the gross overpaying for Nama assets, and the "investment in Anglo-Irish, which is looking more and more like a straight pay-off to its (unnamed) bondholders with nothing but a reputational boost in return.  By reputation I mean of course a reputation for being the biggest sucker in town...

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 31st, 2010 at 07:44:19 AM EST
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