What are the prospects of the UKIP seriously splitting the Tory vote and effecting the general election outcome?  I haven't seen any decent opinion poll data and their likely impact at constituency level.  Are they seen as an acceptable alternative to the BNP by people concerned about immigration?  Are they seen as a viable alternative to the Tories by right-wingers who don't like Tory toffs?  Where will the right wing working class vote go?

notes from no w here