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So is there any analysis anywhere of the 100 seats in play and the likely players, swing factors, local issues, strong candidates and any opinion polling data?  It seems quite difficult to get hard data or real local analysis on UK politics other than the bland national polls and dodgy conversions into likely seat numbers.  How do people decide who are the real players at local level and ths avoid wasting their vote?  Is tactical voting really all that prevalent and isn't the relative abstention rate the most likely swing factor in many instances?.

In NI I wasn't able to find a single poll in advance of the Europeans on which to base informed comment!

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 2nd, 2010 at 10:41:20 AM EST
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I'm sure that information is available to the parties and any other interested party who can stump up the cash for the private polling info.

Also I'm pretty sure the media know exactly which seats are in play during an election. But everybody in the game wants to maintain the fiction that every vote counts and so you'll never see anyone discuss the fact that 450 - 500 seats will return the same party as currently holds them, the same party that has held them for several parliaments.

So, the only way to know is to trawl through websites such as the BBC and, wherever there's a majority of less than 5,000 for the current govt, make an assumption that it's in play. Any seat with a majority of less than 2,000 is definitely gonna move over.

I don't know about tactical voting, I know I have tried hard to talk to people about the necessity of voting against what you hate, but many prefer to vote for the party they like believing that democracy is compromised if they think too hard about being effective.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Apr 2nd, 2010 at 03:44:48 PM EST
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